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Top stories

Kremlin Says Putin to Meet Iran’s Pezeshkian, Asian Leaders in China

Kremlin Says Putin to Meet Iran’s Pezeshkian, Asian Leaders in China

Authors

7

11 months ago

France, Germany and UK Trigger UN 'Snapback' to Restore Iran Sanctions

France, Germany and UK Trigger UN 'Snapback' to Restore Iran Sanctions

Authors

73

11 months ago

Germany Urges Citizens to Leave Iran After Snapback Sanctions Move

Germany Urges Citizens to Leave Iran After Snapback Sanctions Move

Authors

5

11 months ago

US Foreign Policy

Bipartisan U.S. Lawmakers Press Israel to Halt Syria Strikes

Authors

4

11 months ago

NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

Authors

12

11 months ago

Israel Stages Rare Airborne Raid Near Damascus After Successive Strikes

Authors

18

1 year ago

Iran’s IRGC Says 13 Militants Killed in Sistan-Baluchestan Raids

Authors

5

1 year ago

Austria Puts IAEA Chief Grossi Under 24-Hour Guard After Iran Threat

Authors

11

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Iranian

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.28%chance

9653736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18814

1115

Will the Iranian protests end tragically?

Jan 9, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.08%chance

308864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2720

368

Will the US obtain the Iranian uranium?

Apr 1, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

14.16%chance

547021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3243

194

Will conclusive evidence emerge that Nuno Loureiro was killed by the Iranian government or its agents before 2027?

Dec 18, 3:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.69%chance

146374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6010

166

If the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?

Feb 17, 10:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.92%chance

322579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

399

25

Will Iranian-backed sleeper cell activity result in US casualties before 2029?

Mar 10, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

241847

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

867

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? [Polymarket]

May 20, 7:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

101078

OptionProbability

December 31

June 30

May 31

11

2

0

When will the Iranian protests end?

Jan 15, 9:56 PMFeb 17, 2:59 AM

10906

OptionProbability

Before January 1, 2027

Before July 1, 2026

Before April 1, 2026

Before March 1, 2026

Before February 15, 2026

Before February 1, 2026

82

77

40

3

2

1

Manifold thinks the Iranian regime is in a stronger position on the anniversary of the start of Operation Epic Fury

Apr 8, 1:46 AMMar 1, 2:43 AM

6620

OptionProbability

Stronger

Weaker

About the same

50

29

21

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Feb 20, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

11156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Conditional on complete oil & gas sector destruction: would the iranian regime collapse within 5 years?

Jun 21, 8:56 PMJun 21, 8:54 PM

62.81%chance

585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Any of the Iranian National Jewels is stolen or destroyed or lost through 2031

Aug 31, 4:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.94%chance

273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

96

83

Latest stories

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Aug 29, 2025
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Kremlin Says Putin to Meet Iran’s Pezeshkian, Asian Leaders in China
Authors
7
11 months ago
Aug 29, 2025
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1 year ago
Aug 21, 2025
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1 year ago
Aug 20, 2025
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