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Top stories

Kremlin Says Putin to Meet Iran’s Pezeshkian, Asian Leaders in China

Kremlin Says Putin to Meet Iran’s Pezeshkian, Asian Leaders in China

Authors

7

3 months ago

France, Germany and UK Trigger UN 'Snapback' to Restore Iran Sanctions

France, Germany and UK Trigger UN 'Snapback' to Restore Iran Sanctions

Authors

73

3 months ago

Germany Urges Citizens to Leave Iran After Snapback Sanctions Move

Germany Urges Citizens to Leave Iran After Snapback Sanctions Move

Authors

5

3 months ago

US Foreign Policy

Bipartisan U.S. Lawmakers Press Israel to Halt Syria Strikes

Authors

4

3 months ago

NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

Authors

12

3 months ago

Israel Stages Rare Airborne Raid Near Damascus After Successive Strikes

Authors

18

3 months ago

Iran’s IRGC Says 13 Militants Killed in Sistan-Baluchestan Raids

Authors

5

3 months ago

Austria Puts IAEA Chief Grossi Under 24-Hour Guard After Iran Threat

Authors

11

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Iranian

Iranian strike on U.S. soil in 2025?

Jun 23, 6:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.72%chance

206596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4542

227

US boots on Iranian soil in 2025?

Jun 23, 6:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.3%chance

164910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4719

212

Will Manifold look positively at the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sides on June 21st 2025 at their anniversary?

Jun 22, 1:15 AMJun 22, 6:59 AM

37.22%chance

211474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

770

Will Iranian government action cause the deaths of at least 10 Americans within the borders of the US in 2025?

Jun 22, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16%chance

24825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

44

Iranian weapon lands in or damages al-Aqsa before 2026?

Jun 14, 10:36 PMDec 30, 10:24 PM

3.04%chance

8635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

565

18

Iranian Regime survives Trump Administration?

Apr 7, 8:59 PMJan 15, 7:59 AM

87.34%chance

16571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

263

38

Number of alleged Iranian spies caught in Israel from 7.10.2023 until the 31.12.2025

Jun 30, 8:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5436

OptionProbability

50-75

40-49

76-100

30-39

100+

54

26

8

6

6

Will the Iranian regime survive the date it predicted for Israel's destruction?

Oct 6, 12:43 PMSep 9, 8:59 PM

26.89%chance

8199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

61

Iranian fuel & gunpowder factory explosions caused by foreign actors?

Apr 29, 4:29 PMDec 31, 5:07 PM

21.44%chance

7135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

52

Conditional on complete oil & gas sector destruction: would the iranian regime collapse within 5 years?

Jun 21, 8:56 PMJun 21, 8:54 PM

62.81%chance

585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Any of the Iranian National Jewels is stolen or destroyed or lost through 2031

Aug 31, 4:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.94%chance

273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

96

83

Will the two US citizens involved in the Iranian plot to kill Donald Trump be convicted?

Nov 8, 6:01 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

67.77%chance

465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Latest stories

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Aug 29, 2025
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Kremlin Says Putin to Meet Iran’s Pezeshkian, Asian Leaders in China
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4 months ago
Aug 21, 2025
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Aug 21, 2025
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4 months ago
Aug 20, 2025
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Middle East
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Aug 19, 2025
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