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Top stories

Kremlin Says Putin to Meet Iran’s Pezeshkian, Asian Leaders in China

Kremlin Says Putin to Meet Iran’s Pezeshkian, Asian Leaders in China

Authors

7

5 months ago

France, Germany and UK Trigger UN 'Snapback' to Restore Iran Sanctions

France, Germany and UK Trigger UN 'Snapback' to Restore Iran Sanctions

Authors

73

5 months ago

Germany Urges Citizens to Leave Iran After Snapback Sanctions Move

Germany Urges Citizens to Leave Iran After Snapback Sanctions Move

Authors

5

5 months ago

US Foreign Policy

Bipartisan U.S. Lawmakers Press Israel to Halt Syria Strikes

Authors

4

5 months ago

NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

Authors

12

5 months ago

Israel Stages Rare Airborne Raid Near Damascus After Successive Strikes

Authors

18

5 months ago

Iran’s IRGC Says 13 Militants Killed in Sistan-Baluchestan Raids

Authors

5

5 months ago

Austria Puts IAEA Chief Grossi Under 24-Hour Guard After Iran Threat

Authors

11

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Iranian

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.66%chance

5510864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7931

2959

Will the Iranian protests end tragically?

Jan 9, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.28%chance

286614

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1576

635

How many Iranians will be killed by it's regime in 2026?

Jan 11, 12:53 PMJan 12, 2:59 AM

446583

OptionProbability

40000+

20000-39999

10000-19999

6000-9999

3000 - 5999

2000- 2999

0 - 1999

53

25

10

6

4

1

0

How many people will die as a part of the 2025-26 Iranian protests before March 20th (up to 10k)?

Jan 11, 8:23 PMMar 20, 11:59 PM

156532

OptionProbability

10,000+

5,000 - 9,999

1,000 - 4,999

0 - 99

100 - 499

500 - 999

94

4

1

0

0

0

Will conclusive evidence emerge that Nuno Loureiro was killed by the Iranian government or its agents before 2027?

Dec 18, 3:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.63%chance

146297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6081

164

Will Manifold look positively at the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sides on June 21st 2025 at their anniversary?

Jun 22, 1:15 AMJun 22, 6:59 AM

56.88%chance

231907

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

871

Will the current wave of Iranian protests be suppressed by the end of 2026?

Jan 4, 10:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.73%chance

22968

OptionVotes

NO

YES

333

30

If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?

Jan 15, 3:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

32937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Iranian Regime survives Trump Administration?

Apr 7, 8:59 PMJan 15, 7:59 AM

55.15%chance

18623

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

When will the Iranian protests end?

Jan 15, 9:56 PMFeb 17, 2:59 AM

9353

OptionProbability

Before January 1, 2027

Before April 1, 2026

Before July 1, 2026

Before March 1, 2026

Before February 15, 2026

Before February 1, 2026

89

85

85

71

43

21

Will Iranian protest successfully over Ali Khamenei's term before 1st march

Jan 14, 11:34 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

13.17%chance

7178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

257

39

Conditional on complete oil & gas sector destruction: would the iranian regime collapse within 5 years?

Jun 21, 8:56 PMJun 21, 8:54 PM

62.81%chance

585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Latest stories

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Aug 29, 2025
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