Traders are betting heavily that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next month, pricing the probability of a 25-basis-point cut at roughly 80 percent ahead of Chair Jerome Powell’s appearance at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium this week. CME Group’s FedWatch tool late on 20 August showed an 85 percent chance of easing at the 17 September meeting, while prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi hover near 70 percent. The odds dipped briefly after the release of July FOMC minutes but remain well above neutral levels, suggesting investors believe a cooling labour market will outweigh lingering inflation pressures. Wall Street houses have begun to lean into the dovish view. Goldman Sachs told clients it now expects three rate cuts before year-end, with follow-up moves possible in October or December if incoming data continue to soften. Powell is slated to deliver his economic outlook at 10 a.m. Eastern on Friday, 22 August, in what would be his final Jackson Hole address as Fed chair. Analysts expect him to outline elements of a new policy framework while navigating questions about political pressure on the central bank’s independence. Global markets are in a holding pattern. European equities were flat and the dollar index steadied around 98.3 on Thursday, while Treasury yields inched higher on concern Powell could push back against easing expectations. His remarks are seen as a potential catalyst for volatility heading into the September decision.