Morgan Stanley has revised its U.S. interest-rate outlook, now expecting the Federal Reserve to deliver two 25-basis-point cuts in September and December 2025 after previously projecting no easing next year. The bank says the shift follows Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, which it interpreted as signalling heightened concern over labour-market risks. The Wall Street firm further anticipates that the Fed will proceed with 25-basis-point reductions at each quarterly policy meeting in 2026—March, June, September and December—bringing the federal-funds rate to a terminal range of 2.75% to 3.0%. Credit Agricole also now forecasts two quarter-point cuts by year-end 2025 but expects the central bank to halt thereafter, leaving the policy rate higher at about 4.0%. The diverging terminal-rate projections reflect differing views on how persistent inflation and the recent 145% tariff on Chinese imports will affect price pressures.