Economists are bracing for a further cooling of the U.S. labour market when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its June jobs report on Thursday. Goldman Sachs expects non-farm payrolls to rise by only 85,000, well below the roughly 110,000 median forecast and down from May’s 139,000 gain. The bank also projects private-sector payrolls will match that 85,000 figure, citing falling federal employment, weaker manufacturing output and the drag from President Donald Trump’s trade and immigration policies. Across Wall Street, forecasters see unemployment edging up to 4.3 percent, the highest since October 2021, while average hourly earnings are forecast to increase 0.3 percent on the month and 3.9 percent from a year earlier. Alternative data, higher jobless claims and a surprise 33,000 decline in ADP private payrolls have reinforced expectations of softer hiring. Analysts warn that tariffs — including April’s 145 percent levy on Chinese goods — and the termination of temporary protected status for hundreds of thousands of Venezuelan migrants could subtract tens of thousands of jobs from June’s tally. A modest headline number is unlikely to push the Federal Reserve into resuming interest-rate cuts at its 30 July meeting, but a sharper-than-expected slowdown could bring policy easing forward to September. With U.S. markets closing early for the Independence Day holiday, investors will quickly parse Thursday’s data for signs that the once-resilient labour market is losing momentum.