A new Siena College poll conducted 4–7 August among 813 registered New York voters, including a city subsample of 313, shows Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani holding a 19-point lead in the New York City mayoral race. The democratic socialist is backed by 44 percent of respondents, compared with 25 percent for former governor Andrew Cuomo, 12 percent for Republican Curtis Sliwa and 7 percent for incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who is running as an independent. Mamdani’s advantage is underpinned by strong support among voters younger than 35 and a double-digit net favorability rating of +14. Cuomo’s favourability stands at –17. Ideologically, 70 percent of self-identified liberals favour Mamdani, while 40 percent of conservatives prefer Sliwa. Reflecting the poll, prediction platform Polymarket on Wednesday assigned Mamdani an 82 percent probability of winning the November 4 election, up sharply from 5 percent in May. The same Siena survey reports that Governor Kathy Hochul leads likely Republican challenger Representative Elise Stefanik 45 percent to 31 percent in a prospective 2026 matchup. Hochul’s edge has narrowed to 14 points from 23 points in June even as her approval rating improved to 53-42.