Trump Tariffs Weaken Dollar, Euro Rises 10% as IMF Sees US Growth Cut by 0.9 Points
President Donald Trump's administration has withdrawn the United States from key treaties and organizations, including the UN Paris climate accord and the World Health Organization, and ordered a comprehensive review of U.S. participation in multilateral institutions. The administration has imposed a broad package of tariffs, particularly targeting China, with rates ranging from 10% to 49%, triggering a global trade war and affecting international economic relationships.
These policies have led to a depreciation of the U.S. dollar, with the euro appreciating by as much as 10% this year and surpassing $1.13, its highest level since late 2021. The IMF reports that the proportion of global foreign exchange reserves held in dollars has declined to 57%, while the euro's share remains around 20%. Investors have shown increased interest in euro-denominated assets and European government bonds, partly due to Germany's expanded borrowing for bond issuance.
According to IMF projections, the new U.S. tariffs are expected to reduce U.S. economic growth in 2025 by 0.9 percentage points, with China's growth reduced by 0.6 points and the eurozone's by only 0.2 points. European officials, including ECB President Christine Lagarde, have called for reforms to strengthen the euro's international role. The Deutsche Bank described the current situation as the biggest shock to the global financial system since 1971.
While the U.S. dollar remains the dominant reserve currency, there is no clear successor, but the euro is increasingly considered an alternative. The European Union's stability, predictability, and respect for the rule of law are cited as factors attracting investors. However, internal trade fragmentation within the eurozone and potential impacts on exports present ongoing challenges.
The Trump administration's approach has raised questions about the future of multilateral institutions such as the IMF and World Bank. Project 2025 proposes a potential U.S. exit from these organizations. In response, European countries and other donors are preparing for scenarios with reduced U.S. support, and alternative regional arrangements are being explored, including China's 40 currency swap agreements valued at $586 billion.
Amid these shifts, Asia's role in global trade continues to expand, and non-aligned countries are increasing their share of international commerce. The EU, with its 450 million consumers, is seeking to attract investment and deepen trade ties, though the global economic outlook remains uncertain.
Written with ChatGPT (GPT-4).
Bloomberg
Daniel D. Eckert 🇩🇪 🇺🇦 🇮🇱
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