JPMorgan Chase strategists say the US Treasury yield curve could steepen further from its widest level in four years if President Donald Trump secures Senate confirmation of Stephen Miran as a Federal Reserve governor. The bank argues that Miran’s appointment would reinforce a trend already under way in the bond market. The curve extended its rise on Aug. 12, with the two-year yield falling 5 basis points while the 30-year added 4 basis points, leaving the 2s10s spread about 5 basis points steeper on the day and pushing the long bond toward the 5% mark. Miran, a former Treasury official, has called the administration’s trade, immigration and deregulation policies disinflationary. JPMorgan says those views could translate into a more dovish policy stance at the Fed, encouraging investors to demand higher compensation for longer-dated debt and driving additional steepening. Higher long-term borrowing costs are rippling into interest-sensitive sectors. The homebuilder ETF XHB is trading roughly 1% below its 2025 high after a 10% advance this month, while shares of RH and other housing-related stocks have swung as the bond market reprices the policy outlook.
Homebuilders $XHB 1% from a 2025 high +10% this month https://t.co/9h6LFiNw3X
2Y yield down, but 10/30Y yields higher, big steepening and 30Y edging back closer to 5%. Tough for homebuilders and other housing derivative names to hold these gains for long, IMO (all more or less highs of the day here now). https://t.co/uJFGVBGyq5
2yr -5bps 30yr +4bps Stocks ATHs https://t.co/F28zzY0bDA