CBO Finds Trump Tax Bill Adds $3.4 Trillion to Debt, 10 Million Lose Coverage

The Congressional Budget Office said Monday that President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax-and-spending package will expand federal budget deficits by about $3.4 trillion over the 2025-2034 period, its first official estimate of the law as enacted on July 4. The measure, branded the “One Big, Beautiful Bill,” is expected to reduce revenues by roughly $4.5 trillion while trimming direct spending by $1.1 trillion, the non-partisan scorekeeper found. About $960 billion of those savings come from Medicaid and other federal health programs, leaving a net cost that CBO says will be financed through additional borrowing. CBO projects the legislation will leave 10 million more people without health insurance in 2034 than under current policy. The loss of coverage is driven largely by tighter Medicaid eligibility rules and the expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies. The new analysis slightly raises the deficit impact and lowers the projected coverage losses compared with earlier drafts, reflecting late changes that softened some Medicaid reductions. The figures are poised to fuel an intensifying partisan debate over the law’s fiscal and economic consequences as lawmakers prepare the next budget cycle.