JUST IN 🚨: The odds of a rate cut by September have fallen to 65% 👀 2 weeks ago, the odds were over 90% https://t.co/AX2dFubH1H
The market probability (ff futures) of a July 30th cut is 5% The next meeting is Sept 18. My rule of thumb: between 33% and 66% for the "meeting after the meeting" is really a coin-toss. The Sept 18 meeting is back into coin-toss territory. Who wants to tell Trump? https://t.co/D5JhZ6BZsI
U.S. INFLATION DROPS TO 1.75%, SLIPPING BELOW FED’S 2% TARGET Inflation has fallen to 1.75%, down 0.52 points since June 29th and now under the Fed’s long-standing 2% goal. The sharp cooldown boosts expectations for imminent rate cuts, potentially setting the stage for a new https://t.co/rzNeJHxBYh https://t.co/3WzmuFrpu8
Following the June jobs report, market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have notably diminished. Rate futures now indicate about an 80% chance of a Fed rate cut by September, down from 98% prior to the jobs data release. The probability of a rate cut at the July meeting has collapsed to around 5%, a sharp decline from approximately 24-27% seen before the report. Additionally, the odds of no rate cuts by the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting have increased from 5% a week ago to over 30%. This shift in market sentiment is influenced by stronger-than-expected job growth and a recent drop in U.S. inflation to 1.75%, which is below the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The inflation decrease, driven mainly by lower food, beverage, and utility prices, has heightened expectations for potential rate cuts in the near future, although the timing remains uncertain. As of early July, the probability of a rate cut by September has decreased from over 90% two weeks ago to around 65%. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 18.