Traders sharply pared back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing after stronger-than-expected U.S. payroll figures on 3 July. Pricing in the Fed funds futures market now assigns only about a 4-5% chance of a quarter-point cut at the 30 July FOMC meeting, down from roughly 25% before the labour data were released. The probability of the first reduction occurring at the September meeting also fell, to about 78-80% from as high as 96-98% a day earlier. Markets are now pricing a 75.7% likelihood of two cuts by the end of the year, versus 91% previously, and see just a 30.9% chance of three moves, down from 56.2%. The retreat reverses the jump in easing bets triggered on 2 July, when a weak ADP private-sector payrolls report had lifted the implied odds of a July cut to 27.4% and reinforced wagers on at least two reductions by end-2025. Investors will look to next week’s consumer-price data and upcoming Fed communications for further guidance on the policy path.