US non-farm payroll weaker than expected and a softening pace (with material downward revisions), combined with a softer ISM manufacturing print see US bonds rally. https://t.co/0p4OhchoII
US 2y Treasury yields fell by 28bps on Friday – the biggest one-day drop since 2023. The sharp move came after weaker-than-expected jobs data and the resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, which now opens the door for a Trump-appointed replacement. https://t.co/5XATqSgwZd
While the largest US stock market losses in months captured headlines, the government bond market witnessed eye-popping moves in yields, including a 28 basis point drop in the 2-year Treasury. This dramatic shift came as the market's probability of a September Fed rate cut surged https://t.co/NNGUydLKqB
U.S. government bonds staged their sharpest rally in more than a year on Friday after a markedly weaker July employment report prompted traders to accelerate bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. The policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield sank as much as 28 basis points to about 3.76%, its lowest level since late June and the steepest one-day decline since 2023. Five-year yields dropped at least 15 basis points, while the 10-year benchmark slid roughly 12 basis points to 4.241%, a five-week low. The 30-year yield also retreated 10 basis points to 4.86%. Interest-rate futures now imply about a 76% probability that the Fed will deliver a quarter-point cut at its 16–17 September meeting and fully price in two reductions by year-end. The move reverberated across global markets, pushing Germany’s two-year yield down seven basis points to 1.88% and helping extend this week’s decline in Japanese government bond yields. Labor Department figures showed non-farm payrolls rose just 73,000 in July, far below forecasts, while the previous two months were revised down by nearly 260,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, reinforcing signs of cooling in the labor market and giving policymakers more scope to ease policy.