Reuters Poll Finds Majority Expect Fed Rate Cut in September

A Reuters survey of 110 economists shows a growing majority expect the Federal Reserve to lower its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% at the policy meeting concluding on 17 September. Sixty-one percent of respondents, or 67 economists, anticipate the move, up from 53 percent in July’s poll. Looking beyond September, 68 of those polled project the U.S. central bank will deliver one or two reductions before year-end, broadly unchanged from the prior month’s survey. The findings reflect mounting concern over slowing job growth and the inflationary impact of the 145 percent tariff on Chinese goods that took effect in April. Economists cited mixed economic signals and political pressure on Chair Jerome Powell as factors complicating the outlook. Interest-rate futures imply an even higher probability of a September cut, and some traders are betting on a third move later in the year, underscoring the gap between market pricing and analyst forecasts.