Labor Day News

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)

pass 500 or more executive orders

A literal red line on the ground/floor

complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts

Stays alive

Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws

repeal or reform the dietary guidelines

forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc

intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican

explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue

request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts

admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely

request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts

Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.

Revoke ten or more citizenships

Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025

Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.

complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

Pardon himself

File lawsuit against a congressperson

have a journalist arrested

have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally

refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state

repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025

Enforce the Comstock Act at least once

Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)

sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries

new blockade of a country

Prosecute someone for flag burning

Pardon a convicted pedophile

Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest

complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen

Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground

resume buying oil from Russia

declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country

Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)

call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician

Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard

call someone retarded through text or speech

closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)

Dep

Nominate a family member to high office

Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress

have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025

revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like

put his name on a ship in the navy

Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election

remove a major non NATO ally from the current list

His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory

Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture

Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)

force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt

Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO

repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)

Announce he’s running for a third term

Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)

Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)

Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson

ten or more protestors killed during term

Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill

Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)

Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025

Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation

Causes Tina Peters' early release

classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire

Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education

Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis

Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security

federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)

End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)

Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.

Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program

call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech

Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps

Pardon p diddy

Add a citizenship question to the census

Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons

Raise contribution limits (FEC)

take state ownership in an airline

Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)

department of defense renamed to Dept of war

Pardon ghislaine maxwell

Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities

Call for the death penalty of any former president by name

Prevent the VA from covering abortion services

remove tax exempt from only certain religions

get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia

Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)

appoint a family member to lead any federal agency

enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like

Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation

Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

ban all new incoming students from china and/or india

Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)

threaten to disinter bodies from another country

Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990

Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection

Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA

Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere

Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime

sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission

Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC

confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself

Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)

add a new federal holiday in his honor

take control of a part of ukraine

debank a congressperson governor or mayor

announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA

Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment

change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again

Replace his Vice President

stops all sanctions on Russia

Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency

force a former president to testify before Congress

Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)

expand the borders of the usa

breaks ground on a trump building in Russia

repeal Obamacare

New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)

actually disinter bodies from another country

Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day

Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906

Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act

orders arrests of any Biden family member

repeal an amendment

Enact price controls on groceries

expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new

declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon

host putin at mar a lago

make statements that are negative about labubu

complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down

take control of a part of greenland

have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed

declares a white history month

ends black history month

all time high unemployment reached

Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.

confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person

After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy

have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason

changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)

Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt

Implement a federal age of consent

Eliminate the DOE Loan Program

Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture

stop California from hosting the Olympics

Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment

Causes derek chauvin's early release

fully nationalize an airline

Says 6 7 (or variant)

delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday

issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future

pardon derek chauvin

Raise the retirement age for social security

breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza

Salute Putin

Withdraw from NATO

Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Call for the end of child marriage

Call for the end of gay marriage

Fully or partially privatize Social Security

change or add a face on Mount Rushmore

Annex any part of Mexico

change the borders of a state

add a new state

Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war

federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms

Call for the end of the House of Reps

Call for the end of the Senate

give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia

Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system

cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason

fauci in jail at least one week

enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea

ban trans people from holding federal offices

Implement a federal abortion ban

bans anime

Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace

Call for the end of interracial marriage

Wearing a white dress after labor day

bans 6 7

NO

YES

NO

15000 - 20000

Above 20000

Below 2000

10000 - 14999

2000 - 3999

8000 - 9999

6000 - 7999

YES

NO

YES

YES

NO

YES