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Chamber of Deputies News

    Prediction markets for Chamber of Deputies

    OptionProbability

    Expansion of self-declared environmental licensing (e.g., PL 2159/21)

    Regulation of the Tax Reform approved in 2023 (rules for the new IVA)

    Amnesty for electoral fines for non-compliance with racial and gender quotas (e.g., PEC 9/23)

    Increase in the duration of paternity leave for all cases that currently have this right (e.g., PL 6216/23)

    Legalization of gambling (e.g., PL 2234/22)

    Time limit for the demarcation of Indigenous Lands (e.g., PEC 48/23 - "Marco Temporal das Terras Indígenas")

    Constitutional prohibition of carrying any quantity of illicit drugs (e.g., PEC 45/23)

    Change of attribution for the demarcation of Indigenous Lands to Congress (e.g., PEC 59/23)

    Prohibition of the reinstatement of Armed Forces members who leave the position to run in elections (e.g., PEC 42/23)

    Some reform of military pensions

    New law to regulate health plans (e.g., PL 7419/06)

    Change in percentages or rules for calculating the constitutional floor for health and/or education expenses

    Mineral exploration in Conservation Units (e.g., PL 5822/19)

    Return of the five-year bonus payment for the Public Ministry and public defenders (e.g., PEC 10/23)

    Attribution for states to legislate on the carrying and possession of firearms (e.g., PLP 108/23)

    Reduction of the legal reserve proportion in the Amazon (e.g., PL 3334/23)

    Prohibition of plea bargains during preventive detention (e.g., PL 4372/16)

    Criminalization of a legal hypothesis for abortion that is currently considered legal (e.g., PL 1904/24 - "PL do Estuprador")

    Some increase in the responsibilities of digital platforms for false content ("PL das Fake News")

    Obligation for digital platforms to pay for the distribution of journalistic content

    End of re-election for executive authorities (e.g., PEC 15/07)

    Creation of fixed-term mandates for Supreme Court justices (e.g., PEC 16/19)

    End of the Union's exclusive ownership of marine land (e.g., PEC 3/22 - "PEC das Praias")

    Amnesty for those prosecuted for participating in the events of January 8, 2023 (e.g., PL 5064/23)

    End of salary bonus ("Fim do abono salarial")

    Impeachment of Lula

    Impeachment of a Supreme Court Ministry

    100

    100

    100

    96

    60

    59

    58

    38

    34

    31

    30

    28

    26

    25

    25

    21

    19

    17

    17

    17

    16

    16

    14

    14

    10

    6

    4

    OptionProbability

    Morena

    PAN

    PRI

    MC

    PVEM

    PT

    Other

    88

    6

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    584

    17

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1080

    870

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    10051

    9986

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    319

    51

    Thailand election 2026

    Dec 18, 4:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    63.18%chance
    253

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    131

    76

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