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Prediction markets for Parliament
Will The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?
Jul 21, 1:09 PMAug 16, 10:59 PM
3%chance
2132109
OptionVotes
5686
176
Will a new party be elected to NZ Parliament by 2030?
Nov 6, 10:25 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM
86.32%chance
263759
OptionVotes
2186
158
Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?
Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.31%chance
173004
OptionVotes
1921
520
Will transnational lists be implemented for the European Parliament elections in 2029?
May 18, 3:50 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM
30.67%chance
122156
OptionVotes
1504
665
Will the European Parliament pass a no-confidence vote against the Commission during the 2024-2029 legislative period?
May 19, 3:12 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM
10.19%chance
52021
OptionVotes
2969
337
Will Polish parliament equalize the retirement age for men and women before 2030?
Jan 27, 12:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
34.01%chance
17902
OptionVotes
1435
666
Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?
Jan 13, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
21.52%chance
21478
OptionVotes
1173
911
If there is a by-election in Hackney North and Stoke Newington in the 2024 parliament, which party will win?
May 24, 10:45 AMDec 31, 11:44 AM
4369
OptionProbability
40
23
18
9
6
5
OptionVotes
356
28
Who will win a majority in Taiwan's parliament in the 2026 midterm elections?
Jan 23, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6212
OptionProbability
79
14
7
When will the first One Nation defection or departure in South Australian parliament occur?
Mar 25, 3:17 AMDec 31, 3:15 AM
3175
OptionProbability
27
18
18
18
18
Will Polish parliament raise the retirement age before 2030?
Jan 27, 12:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
73.26%chance
10157
OptionVotes
1008
989
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