Traders are dialing back expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next month as attention shifts to Chair Jerome Powell’s final appearance at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. The CME FedWatch tool now assigns a 79 % chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its target range by 25 basis points on Sept. 17, down from 85 % two days earlier. On crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket, the probability has slipped to 57 % from roughly 90 % at the start of the week, while event-market Kalshi puts the odds at 68 %, with the likelihood of no move climbing to 34 %, the highest since Aug. 1. The pull-back follows release of the Fed’s July meeting minutes, hotter producer-price data and a Bank of America note flagging the risk of “stagflation-like” readings. Morgan Stanley added to the caution, telling clients it expects no cuts at all this year, and broader derivatives markets have pared wagers on two quarter-point reductions before December. Powell is scheduled to speak at 10 a.m. Eastern on Aug. 22 at Jackson Hole, where he is also expected to outline elements of the Fed’s ongoing framework review. Investors will scrutinise his remarks for clues on whether policymakers will validate—or push back against—the still-elevated market conviction that easing begins in September.