Traders in U.S. rate-futures and prediction markets are now assigning roughly a 90%–95% probability that the Federal Reserve will trim its benchmark rate by 25 basis points at the 17 September FOMC meeting, up from about 73% at the start of the week. Kalshi contracts show a 75% likelihood the cut is limited to a quarter-point and a 9% chance of a larger move, while Polymarket mirrors the elevated odds. The shift has pushed bets on the beginning of an easing cycle deeper into bond portfolios, with Bloomberg reporting that wagers on rate cuts are sweeping through the Treasury market. Adding to the momentum, Goldman Sachs told clients it expects the Fed to deliver 25-basis-point reductions at each of the three remaining policy meetings this year—17 September, 29 October and 10 December—which would lower the target range to 3.50%–3.75%. The bank said a half-percentage-point cut in September is possible should the next employment report show a sharper rise in unemployment. Some traders are already pricing as many as four cuts by March 2026, reflecting concerns that softer labour data and next week’s July inflation release could give policymakers additional leeway to ease. For now, markets remain focused on September, where expectations of a Fed pivot are at their highest level since early spring.