Catalan Poll Shows PSC Holding Lead as Far-Right Aliança Catalana Surges

Catalonia’s governing Socialists would retain first place if regional elections were held today, according to the latest barometer from the Generalitat’s Centre for Opinion Studies (CEO). The poll, based on 2,000 interviews conducted between 30 May and 28 June, projects the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) at 40–42 seats, broadly matching the 42 it won in 2024 and showing little lasting damage from the ‘Caso Cerdán’ corruption scandal involving former PSOE official Santos Cerdán. Junts per Catalunya is forecast to fall sharply to 28–30 seats from 35, while Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya would inch up to 21–23 from 20. The left-wing Comuns are estimated at 5–6 seats; combined with PSC and ERC they would comfortably clear the 68-seat majority threshold in the 135-member chamber, enabling Salvador Illa to continue as regional president. The survey highlights the rise of the far-right Aliança Catalana, which could quintuple its representation to 10–11 seats, overtaking the Comuns and challenging the established parties. The Partido Popular is seen holding steady at 14–15 seats, with Vox close behind on 12–14. Asked about Spanish national politics, respondents still prefer Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez by a wide margin, while support for Catalan independence has ticked up two points since March to 40 %, remaining below the 50 % mark.