Americans preparing for Independence Day gatherings will see a mixed picture on food costs. The American Farm Bureau Federation estimates that a standard menu for 10 people—burgers, pork chops, chicken, sides and dessert—will average $70.92 this year, a modest 30-cent decline from the record $71.22 set in 2024. Although overall inflation has cooled, the Farm Bureau notes that high input costs continue to squeeze producers; farmers still capture only about 15% of the retail food dollar. Beef remains the biggest pressure point. Grocers are charging record prices for ground beef amid tight cattle supplies and disease-related herd losses, prompting some analysts to suggest cheaper proteins such as pork. Wells Fargo puts the year-over-year increase in beef at 7.4%, far outpacing the roughly 2% rise in the broader consumer-price index. A separate review by the Joint Economic Committee’s Democratic staff blames recent trade measures for driving up other holiday staples. Since President Donald Trump’s April tariff package—25% on beer imports and empty aluminum cans and 50% on other aluminum products—the cost of a typical cookout basket has risen at a 12.7% annualised rate, the study found. Six-packs of Miller Lite and Coors Light are each up more than 13%, while imports such as Peroni and Modelo have climbed about 10%. Not all holiday expenses are rising. AAA expects drivers to pay an average of $3.17 a gallon for gasoline, the lowest Fourth-of-July level since 2021, and chicken prices have risen only 1% over the past year. Taken together, the data suggest consumers will pay roughly what they did last year for the core cookout—unless they insist on beef and brand-name beer.