The Congressional Budget Office on Friday said the higher import levies introduced by President Donald Trump are on track to shrink federal budget deficits by a cumulative $4 trillion between 2025 and 2035, provided current tariff rates remain in place. The non-partisan scorekeeper estimates the duties will lower primary deficits by $3.3 trillion and, by reducing the need for borrowing, cut interest outlays a further $0.7 trillion over the 11-year horizon. CBO’s update marks a sharp revision from its June projection, which had put the overall deficit reduction at $3 trillion. The upgrade reflects stronger-than-expected customs receipts as tariff rates continued to climb during the summer. Since January, the effective tariff rate on imported goods has risen about 18 percentage points, including a 30 % surcharge on most products from China, a 25 % levy on selected Mexican goods and 50 % duties on steel, aluminum and copper products. The Treasury collected $136 billion in duties through July, and CBO now expects tariff revenue to reach roughly $200 billion in the current fiscal year. CBO cautioned that the forecast assumes the higher duties stay in force and excludes any broader economic effects, which will be incorporated in its next full baseline early in 2026.