A holiday-shortened trading week will be dominated by economic releases culminating in the U.S. June employment report, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish on Thursday, 3 July, instead of the customary Friday because of the Independence Day break. Equity and bond trading will close early that afternoon and remain shut on Friday. Economists polled ahead of the release expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by roughly 110,000–140,000, down from May’s 139,000, with the unemployment rate edging up to about 4.3 percent. Average hourly earnings are projected to slow slightly to around 3.8 percent year on year. TD Securities warns that a substantial downside surprise—particularly if joblessness moves toward the Federal Reserve’s 4.5 percent year-end projection—could persuade policymakers to deliver a rate cut at their late-July meeting. Two Fed officials have said they are open to easing, but most want firmer evidence that the labor market is cooling. Chair Jerome Powell will have an opportunity to frame the debate when he appears on an international policy panel Tuesday. The data run-up starts the same day with June ISM manufacturing figures and May Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey numbers, followed by ADP private payrolls on Wednesday and ISM services on Thursday. Investors will use the cluster of reports to gauge whether the economy is losing momentum and how that might shape the Fed’s next move.