Democrats have lost ground to Republicans in every one of the 30 U.S. states that record party affiliation, according to a New York Times analysis of voter-registration data compiled by the non-partisan firm L2. Between the 2020 and 2024 elections, Democratic registration fell by about 2.1 million voters while Republican rolls expanded by roughly 2.4 million, a swing of 4.5 million that has eroded the partyβs once-comfortable advantage. The study shows the Democratic share of newly registered voters shrank from 63 percent in 2018 to less than 48 percent in 2024, allowing Republicans to claim a majority of first-time registrants for the first time in six years. Losses were steepest among men, voters under 45 and Latinosβconstituencies that also swung sharply toward Donald Trump in last yearβs election. Battleground states such as Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania all recorded significant Democratic slippage, with North Carolinaβs blue edge nearly erased and Pennsylvaniaβs advantage cut to about 53,000 voters. Strategists interviewed by the Times warned that the registration slide represents a βhidden-in-plain-sightβ crisis that could hamper Democratic prospects well beyond 2028. Internal debates are intensifying over whether to steer funding toward partisan voter-registration drives or continue relying on officially non-partisan groups that have historically targeted young and minority voters. Without a coordinated response, analysts say the party risks falling further behind in states that will decide future presidential and congressional races.
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