LATEST: Odds of a 25 bps FED rate cut in September have surged to 70%, while chances of no change dropped to 22%, according to @Polymarket https://t.co/CtqOYNtuDH
纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯:在九月会议前开放降息可能性。
A sharp slowdown in US job growth rattled investors and revived speculation about a potential September interest rate cut from the Fed https://t.co/WEFeTrBXDP https://t.co/EJUPxwKWvt
U.S. job creation slowed markedly in July, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 73,000—well below the 104,000 economists expected—and downward revisions erasing 258,000 positions from the prior two months. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.2%, while hiring losses were broad-based across manufacturing, retail and professional services, offset only partly by continued gains in health care. The softer labor report triggered a sharp repricing of monetary-policy expectations. Interest-rate futures now discount roughly 62 basis points of Federal Reserve easing for the remainder of 2025, up from about 35 bps before the data. Contracts tied to the September 17 FOMC meeting assign better than a 90% probability to a 25-basis-point reduction, and a 10% likelihood is priced in for an inter-meeting cut. U.S. Treasury yields fell across the curve on the news. New York Fed President John Williams told the Wall Street Journal he is "open" to lowering rates ahead of the September gathering, remarks that market participants interpreted as validating the shift in pricing. "Job growth missed badly and the market reacted fast—yields dropped and rate-cut bets surged," said Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist at Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. Economists from Wells Fargo, Citi and other firms described the July payrolls data and large downward revisions as a potential turning point for the labor market and a "game-changer" for Fed policy, adding to the urgency for policymakers to support a cooling economy.