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Rep. Larson Calls ICE Agents ‘Gestapo’ at Connecticut Protest

3 months ago

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Chinese Taipei Wins 2025 Little League World Series, Defeating U.S. Champion Summerlin South 7-0 Led by Lin Chin-Tse

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ChatGPT Conversations Linked to Connecticut Murder-Suicide, Intensifying Safety Scrutiny

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ICE Arrests 65 Illegal Immigrants in Connecticut’s Operation Broken Trust Including 29 with Serious Crimes and MS-13 Member Kilmar Abrego Garcia

3 months ago

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3 months ago

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4 months ago

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Apple Adds Montana to Apple Wallet Digital ID Line-Up

4 months ago

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

Nov 6, 5:48 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

1485935735

OptionProbability

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

trump gets hospitalized

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

The US leaves the World Health Organization

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

Fair elections in 2028

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Approval < 35%

A new supreme court justice appointed

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Vances have another kid

USA experiences a recession.

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

US Invasion of any North/South American country

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

Joe Biden dies

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Dow rises above 65,000

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

US national bitcoin reserve created

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

A major war in Asia occurs

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

New national park created

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump gets covid (again)

Trump says a racial slur

Trump visits Africa

Tesla

Trump announces he is tired of winning

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

The department of education gets desolved

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Trump and Obama shake hands

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Constitutional Amendment

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Record level unemployment

Repeal obamacare

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

JD Vance elected President

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

10% fewer government agencies

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Another pandemic

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

55 or more Republican senate seats

54 or more Republican senate seats

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Starship lands on Mars

Approval < 25%

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Trump dies

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump runs for a third term

Trump is seen shirtless

south park is canceled/discontinued

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump gets shot

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

BTC falls below $38,000

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Cannabis is federally legalized

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump extends his term past 4 years

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Constitutional Amendment

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump bans abortion nationwide

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

"covfefe" posted again

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

New US national anthem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump and Melania divorce

SpaceX is nationalized

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat

100

What’s the next state to legalize recreational marijuana? 🍁

Dec 8, 10:48 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

7712257

OptionProbability

Pennsylvania

Other

Florida

Hawaii

New Hampshire

Louisiana

Oklahoma

North Carolina

Kentucky

Idaho

Wyoming

Wisconsin

Utah

Texas

Which case will have its central holding overturned before the scheduled end of Donald Trump's term as president?

Nov 24, 4:33 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

217451

OptionProbability

Bowers v. Hardwick

Humphrey's Executor v. United States

The Slaughter House Cases

Locke v. Davey

Carey v. Population Services International (Might be N/A'ed. See Below)

Brown v. Entertainment Merchants Association

Employment Division v. Smith

Morrison v. Olson

The Insular Cases

Hill v. Colorado

Kennedy v. Louisiana

Arizona v. United States

Carey v. Population Services International (Holding regarding the restrictions on the distribution of contraceptives)

Carey v. Population Services International (Holding regarding the advertisement of contraceptives)

Nixon v. General Services Administration

Plyler v. Doe

New York Times v. Sullivan

Texas v. Johnson

United States v. Wong Kim Ark (see note in comments)

Mapp v. Ohio

Jacobson v. Massachusetts

Bivens v. Six Unknown Named Agents

NLRB v. Noel Canning

United States v. Nixon

Griswold v. Connecticut

Gideon v. Wainwright

Miranda v. Arizona

Reynolds v. Sims

Romer v. Evans

Ex parte Young

Lawrence v. Texas

Obergefell v. Hodges

Batson v. Kentucky

Loving v. Virginia

100

UNEXCITEMENT ATLAS: Which US States will NOT declare a state of emergency in 2025?

Jan 15, 10:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

235005

OptionProbability

Wyoming

Ohio

Connecticut

Massachusetts

Maine

Idaho

South Dakota

Vermont

Colorado

Indiana

Illinois

Kansas

Nevada

South Carolina

Alaska

Arkansas

Delaware

Pennsylvania

Utah

Washington

Mississippi

Oregon

Florida

Oklahoma

Texas

North Carolina

Hawaii

Louisiana

Arizona

Virginia

Rhode Island

Iowa

Kentucky

Minnesota

Michigan

Montana

Wisconsin

New Jersey

North Dakota

New Mexico

Which state will be the first to have a statewide land value tax and no state income tax by 2030?

Oct 5, 3:10 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

311914

OptionProbability

No State

North Carolina

Utah

Nevada

Texas

Virginia

Alaska

Colorado

Florida

Michigan

New Hampshire

Pennsylvania

Washington

Wyoming

Alabama

Arizona

Arkansas

California

Connecticut

Delaware

Georgia

Hawaii

Idaho

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky

Louisiana

Maine

Maryland

Massachusetts

Minnesota

Mississippi

Missouri

Montana

Nebraska

New Jersey

New Mexico

New York

North Dakota

Ohio

Oregon

Oklahoma

Rhode Island

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

Vermont

West Virginia

Wisconsin

What will be the outcome of my ACX grant for automated mass appraisal of land values in Philadelphia?

May 12, 3:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

241206

OptionProbability

Total success: accurately and credibly predicts land values and property values

Meh: predicts property values and land values, but is more or less identical in performance to what the status quo assessments in Philadelphia already generate

Partial success: predicts property values and land values, but the error margin is really wide

Partial success: accurately and credibly predicts property values, but not land values

Failure: ship something, but it's broken garbage and the results are inconclusive or useless

Other

Fail to ship anything at all

Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?

Feb 8, 2:10 AMDec 2, 5:59 AM

8758

OptionProbability

Virginia 10

California 21

Connecticut 5

Illinois 17

Indiana 1

Michigan 3

Nevada 1

Nevada 4

New Hampshire 1

New Hampshire 2

New Jersey 5

New York 18

New York 22

Ohio 1

Pennsylvania 17

Washington 8

New York 3

California 49

Washington 3

Colorado 8

Arizona 1

New York 4

Florida 23

Iowa 3

Michigan 8

Nevada 3

New Jersey 9

New York 19

Pennsylvania 8

Virginia 7

Pennsylvania 7

California 22

California 9

California 27

California 41

New York 17

California 13

California 47

Nebraska 2

Texas 28

Iowa 1

Arizona 6

California 45

Maine 2

Michigan 7

New Mexico 2

Ohio 9

Ohio 13

Pennsylvania 10

Virginia 1

Wisconsin 3

Virginia 2

California 3

Florida 13

Michigan 10

New Jersey 7

Oregon 5

Texas 15

Texas 34

North Carolina 1

Alaska at-large

Colorado 3

Arizona 2

California 40

Michigan 4

Montana 1

Pennsylvania 1

Wisconsin 1

Who will win Connecticut’s 2026 Gubernatorial election?

Jun 5, 3:07 PMNov 4, 4:59 AM

5670

OptionProbability

Ned Lamont

Luke Bronin

Susan Bysiewicz

Erin Stewart

Heather Somers

Bob Stefanowski

Other

😵Which states in the USA will have a higher suicide rate in five years? (2024-2029)

Mar 14, 6:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7643

OptionProbability

Wyoming

New York

California

Texas

Arizona

Connecticut

Pennsylvania

Alaska

Montana

Maine

Michigan

Alabama

Colorado

Florida

Georgia

Hawaii

South Carolina

Vermont

Virginia

New Jersey

Kansas

Nebraska

Utah

Which US state will have the most African immigrants by 2030?

Jan 6, 4:11 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6286

OptionProbability

New York

Florida

Alabama

Alaska

Arizona

Arkansas

California

Colorado

Connecticut

Delaware

Georgia

Hawaii

Idaho

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky

Lousisiana

Maine

Maryland

Massachussets

Michigan

Minnesota

Mississippi

Missouri

Montana

Nebraska

Nevada

New Hampshire

New Jersey

New Mexico

North Carolina

North Dakota

Ohio

Oklahoma

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

Vermont

Virginia

Washington

West Virginia

Wisconsin

Wyoming

Which US state will have African immigrants make up the largest % of its population by 2030?

Jan 6, 4:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

3120

OptionProbability

Maryland

Virginia

Wisconsin

Maine

Massachusetts

New York

Alabama

Alaska

Arizona

Arkansas

California

Colorado

Connecticut

Delaware

Florida

Georgia

Hawaii

Idaho

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky

Louisiana

Michigan

Minnesota

Mississippi

Missouri

Montana

Nebraska

Nevada

New Hampshire

New Jersey

New Mexico

North Carolina

North Dakota

Ohio

Oregon

Oklahoma

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

Vermont

Washington

West Virginia

Wyoming

Will a Republican win Connecticut for President by 2050?

Apr 20, 2:50 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

43.83%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

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