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Prediction markets for Americans

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87.36%chance

506201728

OptionVotes

YES

5580

1032

In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Feb 20, 10:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

92.01%chance

468100532

OptionVotes

YES

8080

990

Will Donald Trump send out a stimulus check to the majority of american citizens during his second term?

Nov 22, 5:36 AMJan 30, 4:59 AM

35%chance

15616857

OptionVotes

YES

1746

1234

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8516349

OptionProbability

Palantir

Other

xAI

OpenAI

Anthropic

Anduril

Google

Facebook

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Mistral

What % of Americans will cite computers/technology as the US's top problem by Dec 31, 2026? (Gallup)

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2315614

OptionProbability

0.5-1%

1-1.5%

<0.5%

1.5-2%

2-3%

5-10%

3-4%

≥10%

4-5%

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

53.02%chance

442859

OptionVotes

YES

1116

821

Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028

Mar 6, 12:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.31%chance

101108

OptionVotes

YES

3585

2721

Will 60% of Americans approve abortion "for any reason" before 2030?

Nov 12, 7:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.68%chance

181002

OptionVotes

YES

1489

351

In 2028, will at least 35m (1/10) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Mar 17, 6:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.56%chance

20976

OptionVotes

YES

1307

865

Will an American Astronaut and a Chinese Taikonaut shake hands on the surface of the moon before 2035?

Apr 29, 12:24 AMDec 31, 4:05 PM

15.65%chance

8466

OptionVotes

YES

226

119

Will it ever be true that >50% of Americans own cryptocurrency?**

Oct 7, 1:18 AMJan 2, 12:50 AM

9237

OptionProbability

2055 or later (or never)

Yes, before 2055

Yes, before 2045

Yes, before 2035

Who will win 2026 MLB ALCS? ⚾ (American League Championship Series)

Oct 26, 10:45 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Boston Red Sox

Texas Rangers

Baltimore Orioles

Houston Astros

Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees

Cleveland Guardians

Detroit Tigers

Seattle Mariners

Other

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