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Top stories

Kremlin Says Putin to Meet Iran’s Pezeshkian, Asian Leaders in China

Kremlin Says Putin to Meet Iran’s Pezeshkian, Asian Leaders in China

Authors

7

11 months ago

France, Germany and UK Trigger UN 'Snapback' to Restore Iran Sanctions

France, Germany and UK Trigger UN 'Snapback' to Restore Iran Sanctions

Authors

73

11 months ago

Germany Urges Citizens to Leave Iran After Snapback Sanctions Move

Germany Urges Citizens to Leave Iran After Snapback Sanctions Move

Authors

5

11 months ago

US Foreign Policy

Bipartisan U.S. Lawmakers Press Israel to Halt Syria Strikes

Authors

4

11 months ago

NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

Authors

12

11 months ago

Israel Stages Rare Airborne Raid Near Damascus After Successive Strikes

Authors

18

1 year ago

Iran’s IRGC Says 13 Militants Killed in Sistan-Baluchestan Raids

Authors

5

1 year ago

Austria Puts IAEA Chief Grossi Under 24-Hour Guard After Iran Threat

Authors

11

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Iranian

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.28%chance

9653736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18814

1115

Will the Iranian protests end tragically?

Jan 9, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.08%chance

308864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2720

368

Will the US obtain the Iranian uranium?

Apr 1, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

14.16%chance

547021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3243

194

Will conclusive evidence emerge that Nuno Loureiro was killed by the Iranian government or its agents before 2027?

Dec 18, 3:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.69%chance

146374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6010

166

When will the US+allies kill more Iranians than Iran?

Feb 28, 12:27 PMOct 9, 10:59 PM

163008

OptionProbability

2026-09-30

2026-03-06

2026-03-15

2026-03-31

2026-05-31

14

0

0

0

0

If the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?

Feb 17, 10:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.92%chance

322579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

399

25

Will Iranian-backed sleeper cell activity result in US casualties before 2029?

Mar 10, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

241847

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

867

Manifold thinks the Iranian regime is in a stronger position on the anniversary of the start of Operation Epic Fury

Apr 8, 1:46 AMMar 1, 2:43 AM

6620

OptionProbability

Stronger

Weaker

About the same

50

29

21

What will the Iranian death toll of the Iran War be at the end of 2026 according to HRANA?

Apr 4, 8:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6493

OptionProbability

Above 3,000

Above 10,000

Above 20,000

Above 30,000

Above 40,000

Above 50,000

95

43

30

7

5

2

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Feb 20, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

11156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Conditional on complete oil & gas sector destruction: would the iranian regime collapse within 5 years?

Jun 21, 8:56 PMJun 21, 8:54 PM

62.81%chance

585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Any of the Iranian National Jewels is stolen or destroyed or lost through 2031

Aug 31, 4:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.94%chance

273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

96

83

Latest stories

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Aug 29, 2025
Aug 29, 2025
China
India
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Kremlin Says Putin to Meet Iran’s Pezeshkian, Asian Leaders in China
Authors
7
11 months ago
Aug 29, 2025
Aug 29, 2025
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10
1 year ago
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Aug 19, 2025
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9
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