North American News

Neuralink trials have happened with volunteer humans

New Pope after Francis

three or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

Bitcoin has reached $100K at some point

Gold has reached $2500/oz at some point

ETH Ethereum has reached $2800 USD (again)

Ethereum ETH has reached $4000 again

xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month

Taylor Swift has been married

USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)

publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably

True Detective Season 5 released

Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter

Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport

Destiny is still regularly livestreaming

Putin still leader of Russia

Xi still leader of China

No humans on the moon since Apollo

Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons

Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta

Palworld is still able to be played through Steam

S&box fully released (Facepunch's new garry's mod like game)

George RR Martin has released the next GoT / ASOIAF book (The Winds of Winter)

Slavoj Zizek still giving public talks

a twitter account has reached 500M followers

Charles still King of UK

Mr Beast has 500M or more subscribers on Youtube

Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan

One Piece manga is still going (original series)

The tenth drop of the pitch drop experiment has fallen

Team Fortress 2 is still receiving periodic blog posts / small updates

Flo is still the progressive mascot (the actress still working )

At least one of the other prediction market websites has gone out of business

Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling

the game Rust is still receiving regular updates with new content (not just bug / small fixes)

Winner of 2028 election is Democrat

2h marathon has been officially broken by a human

Avatar still has the record for highest worldwide movie gross on BoxOfficeMojo

Old School Runescape has released Sailing and at least 1 other new skill

@strutheo is still on Manifold, with the same username

Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time

Hytale has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

Apex Legends is still receiving updates and servers are online

A new official weapon has been added to Team Fortress 2 since after 2017

The Nintendo Switch successor console has sold at least 65 million units

Total mana bet on Manifold has peaked to 10B in one day at least once

Family Guy has ended

the Rmax of the top non distributed supercomputer is at least 3000 PFlop/Sec (according to top500.org)

Kingdom Hearts 4 has released

Jared Fogel OR Fetty Wap is out of prison

prong.studio still operational and selling products

Chameleon Twist 3 has released (or another sequel)

Kojima's Physint game has released

Coyote vs Acme releases or leaks

Nintendo still manufacturing Switch

Weak AGI achieved, as indicated by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

there will be a USA federal holiday in August (confirmed happening in 2028 or next year in 2029)

Magic the Gathering card has sold for $1M or more (other than the One Ring!)

Petco will have filed for bankruptcy

Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions

A North American team has won a Dota 2 International for the first time since 2015

At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power

Manifold has sold $40K or more mana in the last 30 days before market close

A second feature length South Park movie has released (like South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut)

jd vance has been president or wins the election to be one

at least one spider man movie releases each year

Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

Chat GPT 7 or higher available for public use

Annoying Orange youtube channel is still uploading at least one video a month

Palestine / Israel will have come to an agreement on borders (post Oct 7)

Russia AND ROC are both forbidden from entering the Olympics still

Nintendo ends online play and other online services for Switch (as they did for WiiU and 3DS on April 8th 2024)

Rabbit is still selling R1 (or a sequel product) and it can be purchased by the average consumer

Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician

Manifold has collapsed / bankrupt at least once already

The New England Patriots have either won a Super Bowl (2024-2027 seasons) or clinched the division (2028)

Build a Bear will have filed for bankruptcy or been bought

Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing

X (Twitter) brand has changed again (either back to Twitter or something other than X)

Amazon #1 book is a self-help book

1200 or more official pokemon

NFL has an official expansion team in Europe somewhere

I'll be dead.

China - Taiwan war / invasion begins

doomsday clock is 100 seconds or more from midnight

There will be a breakthrough in nuclear weaponry

Taylor Swift has been divorced

Dwarf Fortress ceases active development

China has landed a human on the moon

All 9 current Supreme Court justices from today (Jan 2024) are still serving

Turkey has a higher GDP (PPP) than the United Kingdom

a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons

Mana can be donated to charity through Manifold at the same rate (1 cent = 1 mana)

Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use

someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating

a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated

The record for youngest Best Actor Academy Award Broken (Adrien Brody, The Pianist, age 29)

Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)

Josh Shapiro is the President-elect of the United States

JB Pritzker is the President-elect of the United States

Gretchen Whitmer is the President-elect of the United States

Jared Polis is the President-elect of the United States

No humans exist

Manifold Love is still getting updates or community support/events

No default amongst those listed before 2030

Bermudair

JetBlue

Avelo

Frontier

Allegiant Air

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Lufthansa

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

ANA

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Air New Zealand

Breeze

YES

Large Tech company announces layoffs

Israel : Hamas Ceasefire

Taylor Swift becomes engaged to be married (to anyone)

MLB World Series won by the National League team

Earthquake over 8.0 magnitude

Pope Francis dies

Taylor Swift drops a new album (not a Taylor’s Version of an older album actually majority new tracks)

USA government shutdown

New Pope

Skate 4 Release

Tesla catches fire reported by news or https://www.tesla-fire.com/

Three or more teslas catch fire as reported by the Tesla-fire website (or multiple mainstream news)

A famous global brand undergoes a rebranding

6 or more people die in a single shooting incident in the united states

gpt 5 released

Nintendo Direct airs

bitcoin reaches a new all time high

joseph anderson releases his long awaited witcher 3 video

new iphone releases

hollow knight silksong releases

spacex makes >=150 launches in 1 year, all in 2025

elon musk has another child

Dutch coalition resigns

White House goes under lockdown for any period of time

any country starts a new invasion of another country

official trailer releases for S&box (new facepunch / garry mod game)

at least one equipment caused death at a theme park in the USA due to ride failure, negligence, or other similar cause (not: pool drowning, natural disasters , medical, or forced violence)

Skibidi Toilet ends their original series

Total funding for the Effective Altruism movement grows >25% compared to 2023

23andMe goes private

Assassination of an African head of state

Assassination of a North American or South American head of state

grimace shake returns at mcdonalds in usa

commercial airline hijacking

New CEO of Twitter

there is a need to replace an existing supreme court justice (dies/retires/etc) or they add another justice

Assassination of a European or Asian head of state

Chat GPT 6 releases

Trump or Biden are hospitalized for any period of time

Bitcoin closes higher on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2025) than it closed on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2024) [EST] ***

Imu face reveal in One Piece

destiny talks to joe rogan

Joe Biden dies

reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread

Donald Trump diagnosed with COVID-19

Someone other than Netanyahu becomes prime minister of Israel

Taylor Swift breaks up with Kelce

Twitter releases peer to peer payment system, for at least all premium users if not everyone

North Korea and South Korea conflict reignites into a hot war, and results in at least one death

Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI reaches 100%

H5N1 pandemic declared

Trump threatens to deport Musk

Russia : Ukraine ceasefire

AI wipes out humanity

nuclear detonation occurs (can be a test)

bitcoin drops down and reaches 30k or less

Starliner program terminated

chris (strutheo) leaves Manifold and this market is resolved by the @mods

Vladimir Putin dies

Donald Trump dies

Kanye West is arrested or admitted to a mental hospital

tiktok USA company sale is signed and finalized

The same city wins at least two of the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, Stanley Cup, and World Series

Musk : Zuckerberg fight actually happens

Vivek Ramaswamy comes out as LGBTQ

Bitcoin hits $200k USD

MrBeast hits 500 Million subscribers

LK99 or another room temperature superconductor causes another wave of mainstream global news hype

a twitter account besides elon musk reaches 200M followers

Aberdeen Football Club are top of the Scottish Premiership table

MLB World Series won by the American League team

Jimmy Carter dies

linda yaccarino still ceo of twitter at end of year

YES

YES

YES

RIZZ

RATIOED

TADA

FOOLER

BOOL

COPIUM

ENBY

SHINOBI

ENTRAIL

BRANE

ZE

JA

YES

C

V

NO

NO