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Prediction markets for OpenAI

What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 4:47 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

85182377

OptionProbability

Other

$220-230B

$210-220B

$230-240B

$240-250B

$250-260B

$260-270B

$270-280B

$120-130B

$200-210B

$280-290B

$290-300B

$150-160B

$160-170B

$170-180B

$180-190B

$190-200B

$110-120B

$130-140B

$140-150B

<$40B

$60-70B

$70-80B

$80-90B

$90-100B

$100-110B

$40-50B

$50-60B

Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?

Jun 11, 4:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.28%chance

30175291

OptionVotes

YES

29375

1183

[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.52%chance

9952878

OptionVotes

YES

9485

3955

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.26%chance

12139591

OptionVotes

YES

15461

6143

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.97%chance

7023969

OptionVotes

YES

14560

6972

OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027

May 30, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.24%chance

1722671

OptionVotes

YES

10172

3439

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.65%chance

9122191

OptionVotes

YES

14513

8421

Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?

May 17, 3:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.76%chance

8316242

OptionVotes

YES

6939

5265

OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?

Feb 11, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.95%chance

13613497

OptionVotes

YES

1459

685

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Nov 18, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.59%chance

10310880

OptionVotes

YES

3425

1696

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.11%chance

389624

OptionVotes

YES

1740

577

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

26.23%chance

637472

OptionVotes

YES

3396

1772

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