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Prediction markets for OpenAI

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

23.49%chance

18021021808

OptionVotes

YES

17864

9273

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.13%chance

143124122

OptionVotes

YES

14461

9183

Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?

Jun 11, 4:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.6%chance

28958716

OptionVotes

YES

20103

2770

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

Jan 22, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.35%chance

3947145

OptionVotes

YES

118404

88423

Will OpenAI have $1 billion in revenue in 2025?

Jan 12, 7:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

99%chance

11644849

OptionVotes

YES

14494

484

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.98%chance

1923681

OptionVotes

YES

22111

4523

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.41%chance

8720078

OptionVotes

YES

12408

8996

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.31%chance

5717669

OptionVotes

YES

13461

7504

Will OpenAI have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Aug 1, 5:51 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

25.1%chance

3717476

OptionVotes

YES

17311

5741

Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025?

Nov 1, 7:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.53%chance

3616196

OptionVotes

YES

10009

9931

Will sign-in with OpenAI be announced before 2026?

May 31, 8:03 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

64.85%chance

4411884

OptionVotes

YES

1358

736

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?

Dec 29, 5:17 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

33.86%chance

508848

OptionVotes

YES

14496

6492

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