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Prediction markets for OpenAI

What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 4:47 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

83181248

OptionProbability

Other

$210-220B

$220-230B

$230-240B

$240-250B

$250-260B

$270-280B

$170-180B

$180-190B

$190-200B

$200-210B

$260-270B

$280-290B

$290-300B

$150-160B

$160-170B

$130-140B

$140-150B

<$40B

$60-70B

$70-80B

$80-90B

$90-100B

$100-110B

$110-120B

$120-130B

$40-50B

$50-60B

Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?

Jun 11, 4:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.29%chance

29975242

OptionVotes

YES

29373

1184

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69%chance

11739485

OptionVotes

YES

15373

6183

[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.58%chance

8132042

OptionVotes

YES

9023

1253

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.5%chance

6422808

OptionVotes

YES

13402

7535

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.47%chance

9021683

OptionVotes

YES

14005

8548

Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?

May 17, 3:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.86%chance

7514615

OptionVotes

YES

6051

5902

OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?

Feb 11, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.44%chance

13613445

OptionVotes

YES

1512

662

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Nov 18, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.59%chance

10310880

OptionVotes

YES

3425

1696

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.64%chance

359309

OptionVotes

YES

1482

677

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

26.5%chance

617440

OptionVotes

YES

3369

1782

OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027

May 30, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.03%chance

164138

OptionVotes

YES

7045

5144

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