Investors rapidly rewrote their interest-rate outlook after a volatile 48-hour stretch that began with the Federal Reserve’s July 30 policy decision. The central bank kept its target range at 4.25%–4.50% and Chair Jerome Powell said “no decisions” had been made on September. That cautious tone erased earlier optimism: Fed funds futures, CME FedWatch and prediction markets cut the implied probability of a 25-basis-point September reduction to roughly 45%, down from about 65% the previous day. The mood flipped again on 1 August when July’s employment report showed payrolls rising by just 73,000—well below forecasts—while unemployment held at 4.2% and prior months were revised lower. Within minutes of the data, futures pointed to a 75% chance the Fed will ease at its next meeting, and markets fully reinstated expectations for an additional move in October. Kalshi and Polymarket mirrored the shift, each putting September cut odds near 80%. Traders are now once more discounting two quarter-point cuts by the end of 2025, underscoring how economic releases can override policy signals even after a relatively hawkish Fed press conference.