Rep. Jasmine Crockett has emerged as the early frontrunner for the Democratic nomination to challenge Republican Sen. John Cornyn in 2026, according to a National Republican Senatorial Committee survey conducted July 4–7. The poll of 566 likely Democratic voters shows Crockett with 35 percent support, 15 points ahead of former Rep. Colin Allred at 20 percent, while Beto O’Rourke and Rep. Joaquin Castro are tied at 13 percent; 18 percent of respondents remain undecided. The findings are outside the poll’s ±3.03-point margin of error. Crockett, a first-term congresswoman from Dallas, has not formally entered the race but said she is weighing a bid and will decide “depending on how many people reach out.” Her lead comes despite limited statewide campaigning and indicates potential vulnerability for Cornyn, who is seeking a fifth term. The NRSC poll is part of a broader internal assessment of battleground states as Republicans look to defend their 53-seat Senate majority in the midterms.