VCU Poll Puts Spanberger 12 Points Ahead in Virginia Governor Race

Democratic former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger holds a 12-point advantage over Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia’s 2025 gubernatorial contest, according to a July 3 Commonwealth Poll released by Virginia Commonwealth University’s Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs. The survey of registered voters shows Spanberger at 49% and Earle-Sears at 37%, with the result outside the poll’s ±4.16-percentage-point margin of error. The gap has widened since the Wilder School’s December 2024 poll, which had Spanberger ahead 45% to 35%. Democrats also lead the down-ballot statewide contests. State Senator Ghazala Hashmi tops Republican broadcaster John Reid 45% to 36% in the lieutenant-governor race, while former Delegate Jay Jones leads incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares 46% to 37%. Nearly half of self-identified independents remain undecided across the three races, the poll found. Governor Glenn Youngkin’s approval rating stands at 49% approve and 39% disapprove, a slight dip from December, while President Donald Trump is underwater at 40% approve and 55% disapprove among Virginians. Asked about the issues that will guide their vote, 28% of respondents cited the rising cost of living, followed by women’s reproductive rights and immigration, each at 14%, signaling a shift away from education as the dominant concern recorded late last year.