Some investors are positioning for swift interest-rate cuts in mid-2026, betting that a new Federal Reserve chair appointed by President Donald Trump will quickly ease policy once Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026. Traders have sold SOFR futures that mature before Powell departs and bought contracts settling immediately afterward, effectively wagering that the benchmark federal funds rate will fall soon after the change in leadership. Federal Reserve veterans and market analysts caution that such expectations overlook the constraints on any chair. Interest-rate decisions require majority support on the 12-member voting panel of the Federal Open Market Committee, limiting the ability of a single leader to engineer rapid policy shifts. "A chair can’t act like a dictator," said NYU economist Mark Gertler, noting that convincing colleagues would be essential. The central bank has kept rates unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50% this year, and the latest FOMC projections reveal wide disagreement over the path ahead. Ten officials favor up to three cuts by year-end, two see only one reduction, and seven see no change, reflecting divergent views on how Trump’s 145% tariff on Chinese goods will influence inflation. Forecasts for the end of 2026 span a federal funds rate of 2.75% to 4.25%, underscoring the uncertainty that any incoming chair would confront.