The Senate Leadership Fund, the main super PAC aligned with Republican leaders, has warned donors that it may have to spend between $25 million and $70 million this year to help four-term Senator John Cornyn survive a primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. A private briefing first reported by Punchbowl News showed internal polling that puts Cornyn double digits behind Paxton, a gap echoed by betting platform Polymarket, where Paxton holds a 74% implied chance of victory versus Cornyn’s 20%. The unexpectedly lopsided race threatens to divert tens of millions of dollars from the party’s national war chest and could reshape Senate calculations for 2026. Republican strategists argue that a Paxton nomination would force them to defend the seat with far more expensive general-election spending, while former President Donald Trump, whose influence looms large in Texas politics, has so far stayed on the sidelines. The primary drama is unfolding as Texas Republicans push a mid-decade redraw of the state’s congressional map that could hand the party up to five additional U.S. House seats. To block a vote, Democratic state representatives have been out of state for nearly two weeks, denying the House a quorum. Governor Greg Abbott has ordered back-to-back special sessions, and House Speaker Dustin Burrows has enlisted the Department of Public Safety and a public tip line to track down absent lawmakers. The redistricting clash has reverberated beyond Texas. Common Cause, long a foe of partisan gerrymandering, said it would not automatically oppose time-limited counter-maps in blue states, provided they meet public-participation and equity criteria. Governors Gavin Newsom of California and Kathy Hochul of New York have both signaled they are weighing new maps to offset Texas gains, while liberal groups plan protests in 20 states. Inside the Texas delegation, the proposed map has pitted veteran Democrat Lloyd Doggett against progressive firebrand Greg Casar by placing them in the same Austin-based district. The standoff is also giving prospective Democratic Senate hopefuls—including former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, State Rep. James Talarico and declared candidate Colin Allred—a prominent platform as they weigh bids against the eventual Republican nominee.