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Top stories

Syria’s Sharaa to Address UNGA, Ending 50-Year Absence

US Foreign Policy

Syria’s Sharaa to Address UNGA, Ending 50-Year Absence

Authors

16

10 months ago

Netanyahu Confirms Talks on Demilitarized Zone and Humanitarian Corridor in Al-Suweida Amid Israeli Strikes and Druze Protection Efforts

Netanyahu Confirms Talks on Demilitarized Zone and Humanitarian Corridor in Al-Suweida Amid Israeli Strikes and Druze Protection Efforts

Authors

8

10 months ago

U.S. Envoy Presses Netanyahu to Curb Lebanon Strikes, Advance Syria Talks

US Foreign Policy

U.S. Envoy Presses Netanyahu to Curb Lebanon Strikes, Advance Syria Talks

Authors

3

10 months ago

US Foreign Policy

Bipartisan U.S. Lawmakers Press Israel to Halt Syria Strikes

Authors

4

10 months ago

US Foreign Policy

Former Biden Adviser Jake Sullivan Supports Arms Embargo on Israel Amid Gaza Conflict and Ceasefire Collapse; Senators Criticize Syria Strikes

Authors

8

10 months ago

Turkey Links Syria Stability to Its Security, Backs Damascus Unity Efforts

Authors

4

10 months ago

Syria’s Sharaa Rejects Israel Normalisation While Golan Stays Occupied

Authors

3

10 months ago

Israel Stages Rare Airborne Raid Near Damascus After Successive Strikes

Authors

18

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Syria

Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?

Dec 10, 2:44 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

14.92%chance

545400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2388

419

Predictions about Syria in 2026

Dec 9, 10:54 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

352121

OptionProbability

Will Syria be Democratic?

Will Syria be split into more than one state/nation?

Will Syria be Secular?

Will Syria experience a genocide?

28

25

21

19

Will Syria recognize Israel by EOY 2026?

Jan 31, 12:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.06%chance

251147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

45

Will "'ISIS' cease to exist" "once [US forces are] gone" from Syria and Iraq?

Aug 27, 10:32 PMSep 4, 9:59 PM

11.49%chance

18910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

463

61

In 2030, will the government of Syria be better described as being closer to that of the UAE or Afghanistan?

Dec 12, 2:42 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

36.46%chance

7753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1320

758

Will Israel withdraw from the buffer zone with Syria by EOY 2026?

Feb 4, 10:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16.67%chance

12565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

45

Israeli invasion of Syria in December 2024 involves 20-year land grab?

Aug 28, 9:16 PMDec 9, 4:59 AM

44.9%chance

6159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will alcohol be banned in Syria by the end of 2026?

Jan 20, 1:50 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

43.7%chance

884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

91

How democratic will Syria be in 2027, according to V-DEM?

Sep 24, 4:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

383

OptionProbability

Electoral Autocracy

Closed Autocracy

Electoral Democracy

Liberal Democracy

45

31

18

6

Will Turkey annex any portion of Syria by EOY2030? (even by establishing an informal gvmt?)

Dec 9, 10:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.78%chance

451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

84

What will FCDO travel advice to Syria be at the start of 2029?

Dec 12, 1:22 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

447

OptionProbability

Advise against all travel

Advise against all travel to parts

Advise against all but essential travel

Advise against all but essential travel to parts

No travel advisory

Other

19

17

17

17

17

11

How democratic will Syria be in 2026, according to V-DEM?

Sep 24, 4:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Liberal Democracy

Electoral Democracy

Electoral Autocracy

Closed Autocracy

25

25

25

25

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