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Prediction markets for Taiwan
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
31.19%chance
861470662
OptionVotes
15727
12532
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
21.14%chance
487137064
OptionVotes
3121
2103
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2025?
Jan 14, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
5.38%chance
109129265
OptionVotes
4195
238
OptionVotes
2561
1198
Will Taiwan de facto be controlled by China before 2026 according to Western media?
Jan 28, 6:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
3.76%chance
2440407
OptionVotes
36783
7377
OptionVotes
22604
7167
If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
Aug 3, 3:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
50.21%chance
12511773
OptionVotes
1956
1557
If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]
Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM
44.56%chance
477663
OptionVotes
1024
957
Will China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
Nov 8, 8:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
35.01%chance
515685
OptionVotes
1362
734
Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40.02%chance
384335
OptionVotes
2224
1817
Will China invade any territory of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
41%chance
242790
OptionVotes
1200
834
Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan
Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.12%chance
21376
OptionVotes
1080
789
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