Traders sharply pared expectations for U.S. interest-rate reductions after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told reporters that policymakers had made “no decisions” on future easing and reiterated concerns about a resilient labor market and still-elevated inflation. Fed funds futures tracked by CME FedWatch showed the implied probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the 17 September 2025 Federal Open Market Committee meeting sliding to roughly 44–45% late Wednesday, down from nearly 68% earlier in the day when the central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged. Markets also erased the full pricing of an October move and trimmed bets on a second cut at the 10 December meeting, which earlier carried odds of about 65%. Prediction platform Kalshi put the chance that the Fed makes no cuts at all in 2025 at 25%, while the probability of two cuts fell to 33% and the likelihood of a single cut rose to 27%. The repricing underscores investors’ view that any easing now depends on clear evidence of labor-market cooling and further progress in lowering inflation.
ODDS OF SEPTEMBER RATE CUT FALL TO 44% AFTER POWELL REMARKS https://t.co/XV5CXcXIle
A tick chart of the probability of a rate cut at the September meeting. The red box is where Powell was speaking. It started at -66% for a cut (minus = cut, positive = hike), and it is currently at -45%, meaning there is a greater probability that the Fed will hold rates the https://t.co/IQbWnJv6Kl
*MARKETS REPRICE RATE CUT ODDS FOR SEPTEMBER DOWN TO 46.1% FROM NEARLY 70% JUST YESTERDAY