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Google Brings Gemini CLI to Zed, Launches Open Agent Protocol
Authors
16
5 months ago
Prediction markets for AI
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
26%chance
419811291284
OptionVotes
30182
16208
OptionVotes
3562
1813
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
77.09%chance
25582230439
OptionVotes
10519
2148
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
51.04%chance
967737048
OptionVotes
10126
9776
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
9.97%chance
810504552
OptionVotes
57764
10557
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
50.87%chance
555495774
OptionVotes
3519
1108
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
46.47%chance
493409147
OptionVotes
2991
2170
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM
45%chance
231391548
OptionVotes
6865
2234
OptionVotes
4438
1297
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
63.37%chance
318218151
OptionVotes
2061
1304
Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?
Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM
61.39%chance
253131777
OptionVotes
1262
794
[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
36.4%chance
28490246
OptionVotes
5301
4725
Latest stories
Latest stories
- Google Brings Gemini CLI to Zed, Launches Open Agent ProtocolAuthors165 months ago
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