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Prediction markets for AI
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
45%chance
475814556990
OptionVotes
22644
18107
OptionVotes
5174
2211
OptionVotes
3512
1821
OptionVotes
4979
1793
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
60.69%chance
998752698
OptionVotes
12331
8038
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
27.86%chance
653719860
OptionVotes
5791
4783
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
5.21%chance
858583544
OptionVotes
89425
8110
OptionVotes
4387
1304
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
89%chance
530230132
OptionVotes
12091
5829
OptionVotes
4779
831
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
54.8%chance
22150925
OptionVotes
2550
1100
OptionVotes
15292
8192
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