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Prediction markets for ABC
OptionVotes
2587
387
Will there be an attempted physical assault on anyone working for DOGE?
Feb 3, 5:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
22.9%chance
494089
OptionVotes
1835
545
JD Vance and Usha Vance announce separation or divorce before June 1st 2029
Feb 7, 5:57 PMJun 1, 11:00 PM
16.52%chance
213194
OptionVotes
2248
445
OptionVotes
3107
322
At least 20 pardoned Jan 6 rioters involved in politically motivated violence by end of 2026
Jan 21, 6:05 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM
54.98%chance
121952
OptionVotes
1105
905
Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?
Sep 7, 1:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
47.01%chance
261841
OptionVotes
1017
975
Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?
Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
26.23%chance
261269
OptionVotes
1408
785
Kirti-Mochizuki proof of the ABC conjecture is correct.
Sep 10, 11:00 PMSep 17, 10:59 PM
6.19%chance
10540
OptionVotes
389
26
By EOY 2034, what unexpected views of math will be changed by (superhuman) AI?
Mar 21, 9:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
10417
OptionProbability
61
50
43
24
22
21
17
OptionVotes
204
146
OptionVotes
1061
942
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