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Top stories

Moscow Rejects Western Security Plan for Ukraine, Warns Against NATO Troops

Moscow Rejects Western Security Plan for Ukraine, Warns Against NATO Troops

Authors

12

1 year ago

NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

Authors

12

1 year ago

Portugal’s President Calls Trump ‘Russian Asset,’ Pressuring NATO Unity

US Foreign Policy

Portugal’s President Calls Trump ‘Russian Asset,’ Pressuring NATO Unity

Authors

10

1 year ago

NATO's Rutte Warns Russia Could Pursue Assassinations After Kyiv Strikes

Authors

6

1 year ago

Russia Warns Austria Against NATO Bid, Threatens Retaliation

Authors

4

1 year ago

NATO Allies to Hit 2% Defence Mark amid Rutte Warning on Russia-China Buildup

Authors

30

1 year ago

Germany Approves Voluntary Military Service Plan With Conscription Backstop

Authors

35

1 year ago

Rheinmetall Unveils €500 Million German Plant to Lift Europe’s Shell Output

Authors

24

1 year ago

Prediction markets for NATO

Will Ukraine join NATO by 2030?

Aug 17, 11:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.89%chance

13929712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3906

976

Will Ukraine join NATO by 2033?

Jun 17, 10:18 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

27.41%chance

26724133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3719

1543

Will Ukraine join NATO before July 2033?

Jul 2, 5:24 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

30.71%chance

15222806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2999

1011

Will Kazakhstan join NATO by 2033?

Jun 15, 8:59 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

12.93%chance

1406902

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2710

1934

Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?

Jan 16, 1:30 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

19.34%chance

424081

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1171

1061

Will Ukraine join NATO before end of 2030?

Jan 21, 8:41 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

20.05%chance

242300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

856

Will Ukraine join NATO before Family Guy ends?

Mar 7, 7:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.89%chance

301791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2060

1925

Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027?

Jul 10, 1:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.31%chance

19601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

940

Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5?

Aug 21, 1:28 PMDec 31, 2:21 PM

59.21%chance

8485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1205

830

Will the next change in NATO membership result in an increase in the number of members?

Mar 29, 7:00 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

63%chance

6380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1305

766

Before 2030, will a NATO soldier publish a memoir claiming they were secretly on Ukrainian soil in 2022 or 2023?

Jun 29, 6:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

72.11%chance

14372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

984

Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?

Oct 12, 3:57 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

25.72%chance

11253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

978

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