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Top stories

Moscow Rejects Western Security Plan for Ukraine, Warns Against NATO Troops

Moscow Rejects Western Security Plan for Ukraine, Warns Against NATO Troops

Authors

12

8 months ago

NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

Authors

12

8 months ago

Portugal’s President Calls Trump ‘Russian Asset,’ Pressuring NATO Unity

US Foreign Policy

Portugal’s President Calls Trump ‘Russian Asset,’ Pressuring NATO Unity

Authors

10

8 months ago

NATO's Rutte Warns Russia Could Pursue Assassinations After Kyiv Strikes

Authors

6

8 months ago

Russia Warns Austria Against NATO Bid, Threatens Retaliation

Authors

4

8 months ago

NATO Allies to Hit 2% Defence Mark amid Rutte Warning on Russia-China Buildup

Authors

30

8 months ago

Germany Approves Voluntary Military Service Plan With Conscription Backstop

Authors

35

8 months ago

Rheinmetall Unveils €500 Million German Plant to Lift Europe’s Shell Output

Authors

24

8 months ago

Prediction markets for NATO

Is a NATO-aligned or anti-Russian entity responsible for the Nord Stream attack?

Oct 1, 6:02 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

96.55%chance

15847147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13262

816

Will Ukraine join NATO by 2030?

Aug 17, 11:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

16.11%chance

13729599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3869

983

Will Ukraine join NATO by 2033?

Jun 17, 10:18 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

27.27%chance

26624128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3732

1538

Will Ukraine join NATO before July 2033?

Jul 2, 5:24 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

30.53%chance

15122801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3010

1006

Will Kazakhstan join NATO by 2033?

Jun 15, 8:59 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

12.39%chance

1366516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2822

1918

Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?

Mar 29, 9:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.32%chance

252509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1865

536

Will Ukraine join NATO before Family Guy ends?

Mar 7, 7:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.96%chance

291737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2006

1960

Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027?

Jul 10, 1:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.69%chance

19596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1119

945

Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5?

Aug 21, 1:28 PMDec 31, 2:21 PM

59.21%chance

8485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1205

830

Will the next change in NATO membership result in an increase in the number of members?

Mar 29, 7:00 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

63%chance

6380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1305

766

Before 2030, will a NATO soldier publish a memoir claiming they were secretly on Ukrainian soil in 2022 or 2023?

Jun 29, 6:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

72.11%chance

14372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

984

Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?

Oct 12, 3:57 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

25.72%chance

11253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

978

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Aug 29, 2025
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