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Prediction markets for Congress

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

38.56%chance

237773

OptionVotes

YES

12623

7922

Will Congress pass sweeping deregulatory measures by the end of 2026?

Feb 27, 5:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.84%chance

251966

OptionVotes

YES

1171

854

Will Hunter Biden run for US Congress or President during his lifetime?

Jun 5, 4:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.35%chance

14866

OptionVotes

YES

1480

676

Will there be a fistfight or other similar physical altercation in US Congress (house or senate) before 2030?

Sep 26, 5:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.03%chance

17805

OptionVotes

YES

1199

834

Will Congress ameliorate the ACA subsidy cliff for the 2026 tax year?

Apr 14, 8:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.93%chance

4455

OptionVotes

YES

1355

886

Will someone with the name Rigoberto/Rigobert win an Oscar, Olympic Gold Medal, or a US Congress Election by EOY2028?

Feb 14, 2:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.43%chance

16281

OptionVotes

YES

1227

920

Will the JAWBONE Act be enacted into law in the 119th Congress?

Jun 11, 10:12 PMJan 3, 11:59 AM

49.52%chance

4223

OptionVotes

YES

1010

990

If Democrats win the House in 2026, will Congress ban its members from trading individual stocks before Jan 3, 2029?

Oct 7, 2:50 AMJan 3, 5:00 PM

30.93%chance

2150

OptionVotes

YES

1077

801

If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm at least 40 federal judges in the 120th Congress?

Oct 7, 2:54 AMJan 3, 5:00 PM

66.69%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

974

If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will Congress ban its members from trading individual stocks before Jan 3, 2029?

Oct 7, 2:50 AMJan 3, 5:00 PM

15%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will Congress enact a federal abortion-rights law before Jan 20, 2033?

Oct 7, 2:53 AMJan 20, 5:00 PM

1%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Dec 12, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Chicago, IL

New Orleans, LA

St. Louis, MO

Los Angeles, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Boston, MA

San Antonio, TX

Atlanta, GA

Denver, CO

Dallas, TX

Other (Comment below for which city - may add to the list)

Other

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