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Prediction markets for Russia

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

673150599

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

No cease-fire of 6 months

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

Will Trump visit Russia during his term?

Nov 10, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.62%chance

519121364

OptionVotes

YES

2602

1586

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6461670

OptionProbability

Other

Nikolai Patrushev

Mikhail Mishustin

Dmitry Medvedev

Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

Aleksey Dyumin

Sergei Shoigu

Aleksandr Bortnikov

Sergey Naryshkin

Sergei Sobyanin

Ramzan Kadyrov

Alexey Navalny

Yulia Navalny

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

18.58%chance

8245599

OptionVotes

YES

12653

6407

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

May 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

17.63%chance

4231220

OptionVotes

YES

216

Will Volodomyr Zelenskyy be in power at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war?

Nov 11, 2:36 PMJun 1, 12:59 AM

62.43%chance

17128183

OptionVotes

YES

1367

1251

Will Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?

Jan 21, 1:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.89%chance

8624237

OptionVotes

YES

1242

1026

Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026?

Jun 9, 9:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

20.8%chance

10319360

OptionVotes

YES

1962

516

Will Vladimir Putin stop being president of Russia before Volodymyr Zelensky stops being president of Ukraine?

Aug 29, 8:41 PMOct 7, 8:59 PM

22.65%chance

14317355

OptionVotes

YES

2912

1461

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Jun 11, 7:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

43.06%chance

556617

OptionVotes

YES

1153

872

Will Donald Trump ever visit Russia?

Jan 20, 1:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

61.54%chance

805589

OptionVotes

YES

1659

816

Division of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030

Jul 13, 9:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.05%chance

52982

OptionVotes

YES

3409

1209

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War
US Foreign Policy
President Trump Welcomes Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to White House on August 18 Amid Ukraine Conflict and US-India Tariff Tensions
Authors
6
7 months ago

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