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Prediction markets for Russia

Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2025?

Jun 22, 11:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.88%chance

587441644

OptionVotes

YES

6070

273

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

667148166

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

No cease-fire of 6 months

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

Will Trump visit Russia during his term?

Nov 10, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.03%chance

514116661

OptionVotes

YES

2198

1834

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6461670

OptionProbability

Other

Nikolai Patrushev

Mikhail Mishustin

Dmitry Medvedev

Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

Aleksey Dyumin

Sergei Shoigu

Aleksandr Bortnikov

Sergey Naryshkin

Sergei Sobyanin

Ramzan Kadyrov

Alexey Navalny

Yulia Navalny

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

20.42%chance

7944401

OptionVotes

YES

11671

6645

Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin while he is still Russia's president?

Nov 13, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

14533244

OptionVotes

YES

1464

1157

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

May 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19%chance

3329076

OptionVotes

YES

206

Will Vladimir Putin stop being president of Russia before Volodymyr Zelensky stops being president of Ukraine?

Aug 29, 8:41 PMOct 7, 8:59 PM

24.55%chance

14217283

OptionVotes

YES

2724

1519

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Jun 11, 7:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

56.38%chance

516244

OptionVotes

YES

1137

880

Will Donald Trump ever visit Russia?

Jan 20, 1:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

61.13%chance

795502

OptionVotes

YES

1646

824

Will Elon Musk visit Russia in 2025?

Feb 23, 6:30 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

6.45%chance

345206

OptionVotes

YES

5779

505

Division of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030

Jul 13, 9:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

23.2%chance

51700

OptionVotes

YES

3591

1151

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