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Prediction markets for Gemini
Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?
May 19, 1:01 AMJan 1, 2:00 AM
95.67%chance
8516426
OptionVotes
4700
213
OptionVotes
5188
334
Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?
May 20, 4:22 AMOct 1, 4:20 AM
10.32%chance
416957
OptionVotes
2949
339
Is Gemini going to be used widely as a verb like how Google is used by EOY 2026?
Feb 27, 1:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
3.12%chance
273071
OptionVotes
2340
866
Google deploys ads in Gemini web or mobile app by end of 2026
Jan 8, 5:08 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM
9.64%chance
282136
OptionVotes
306
33
Will "Saving Gemini: The 9-Min Road to Recovery" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jul 3, 1:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.46%chance
8750
OptionVotes
1465
940
Will Gemini Flash 3.6 achieve a mortal rating of 70 or higher in Riichi Mahjong?
Sep 9, 11:54 PMOct 9, 10:59 PM
30.21%chance
4527
OptionVotes
1520
658
Will "Gemini Diffusion: watch this space" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 21, 10:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.49%chance
4460
OptionVotes
1460
940
Will the next major AI model (GPT-5, Gemini 2.0, etc.) be able to correctly predict this market's resolution?
Dec 14, 12:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
65.91%chance
8249
OptionVotes
163
89
Will "Gemini 3 is Evaluation-Paranoid and Contaminated" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 21, 6:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.33%chance
150
OptionVotes
1050
992
Will "Gemini's Hypothetical Present" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Mar 1, 9:48 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.33%chance
150
OptionVotes
1050
992
Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15.79%chance
120
OptionVotes
1020
885
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