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Top stories

Sphere Debuts AI-Enhanced ‘Wizard of Oz’ on 16K, 160,000-Sq-Ft Screen

Sphere Debuts AI-Enhanced ‘Wizard of Oz’ on 16K, 160,000-Sq-Ft Screen

Authors

10

7 months ago

Honor Brings Ultra-Thin Magic V5 Foldable to Europe for €1.999

Honor Brings Ultra-Thin Magic V5 Foldable to Europe for €1.999

Authors

25

7 months ago

Alphabet Shares Top $211, Notch Another Record on AI Optimism

Alphabet Shares Top $211, Notch Another Record on AI Optimism

Authors

13

7 months ago

Google Brings Gemini CLI to Zed, Launches Open Agent Protocol

Authors

16

7 months ago

Google Makes Vids Free, Adds AI Avatars and Image-to-Video Tool

Authors

31

7 months ago

a16z List Shows ChatGPT Leads as AI App Market Matures

Authors

19

7 months ago

Google Touts Low-Energy Gemini Prompts as AI Power Demand Swells

Authors

13

7 months ago

Google Tests Agent and Immersive Modes to Broaden Gemini AI

Authors

18

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Gemini

Gemini 3.5 (Google) release date

Dec 14, 7:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

397023

OptionProbability

Before September 2026

Before August 2026

Before July 2026

Before June 2026

Before May 2026

Before April 2026

Before January 2026

Before February 2026

Before March 2026

84

77

57

25

12

2

0

0

0

Gemini 4 released in 2026?

Dec 14, 7:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.21%chance

314092

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1689

706

Gemini 3 Deep Think Frontier Math 1-3 Score

Nov 21, 6:56 PMMar 31, 5:54 PM

133302

OptionProbability

50 - 55%

45 - 50%

55 - 60%

40 - 45%

60 - 65%

<40%

65 - 70%

80%+

70 - 75%

75 - 80%

29

28

18

11

6

3

2

2

1

1

Is Gemini going to be used widely as a verb like how Google is used by EOY 2026?

Feb 27, 1:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.91%chance

231621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1890

882

Will Gemini join the S&P 500?

Jan 2, 1:05 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2.4%chance

101501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1998

906

By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year?

Feb 2, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6469

OptionProbability

< 0.05x

0.05x - 0.2x

0.2x - 0.5x

0.5x - 0.9x

0.9x - 1.1x

> 1.1x

41

21

15

11

8

5

Will "Gemini Diffusion: watch this space" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 10:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.49%chance

4460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1460

940

Google deploys ads in Gemini web or mobile app by end of 2026

Jan 8, 5:08 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM

25%chance

15412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

Will "Gemini 3 is Evaluation-Paranoid and Contaminated" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 21, 6:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "Gemini's Hypothetical Present" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 1, 9:48 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

Will ANY Gemini or Apollo astronaut become centenarian?

Mar 10, 4:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.64%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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31
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Google Launches $129 Pixel Buds 2a With Active Noise Cancellation, Gemini Integration, Tensor A1 Chip, and October 9 Release
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14
7 months ago
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6
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22
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8
7 months ago
Aug 19, 2025
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18
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AI
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3
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Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
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AI
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5
7 months ago
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Aug 18, 2025
AI Modeling
AI Products
AI
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67
7 months ago
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8
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6
7 months ago
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8
7 months ago

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