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Prediction markets for ICE

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

40.08%chance

10224320

OptionVotes

YES

2537

1522

(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?

Sep 11, 9:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

41.17%chance

7321508

OptionVotes

YES

7995

3995

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.26%chance

2112589

OptionVotes

YES

14072

3617

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Jan 19, 10:53 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

24.34%chance

789595

OptionVotes

YES

1763

567

Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?

Apr 3, 7:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

87.94%chance

596459

OptionVotes

YES

2046

1123

Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030?

Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.51%chance

576376

OptionVotes

YES

1155

893

Will the UK Government establish a dedicated immigration enforcement agency similar to US ICE by end of 2026?

Jun 22, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.08%chance

182716

OptionVotes

YES

1562

640

Will there be a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026?

Jan 10, 1:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.77%chance

232215

OptionVotes

YES

1418

706

Will the Antarctic sea ice extent reach at least 25 million square kilometers at least once this century?

Apr 7, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.16%chance

301266

OptionVotes

YES

1328

1049

Will NASA's Europa Clipper confirm liquid water under the ice?

Oct 18, 1:02 AMOct 15, 3:59 AM

75.53%chance

9863

OptionVotes

YES

1757

569

Widespread reports of ICE or DHS agents guarding polling stations during Trump II

Aug 15, 4:17 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

65.86%chance

5613

OptionVotes

YES

1389

720

Will the Arctic be ice-free in summer by the year 2050?

Apr 23, 12:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73%chance

12574

OptionVotes

YES

1031

835

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Aug 28, 2025
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Aug 13, 2025
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1 year ago

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