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Prediction markets for French

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election?

Apr 9, 1:32 AMMay 7, 11:59 PM

8.69%chance

5918838

OptionVotes

YES

2855

595

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election

Nov 16, 8:05 PMMay 21, 3:59 AM

9.51%chance

3610707

OptionVotes

YES

2913

548

Will Emmanuel Macron change the French constitution to be able to run for a third term in a row?

Oct 19, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4.53%chance

293929

OptionVotes

YES

2190

875

Will the French President of the Republic dissolve the National Assembly again before the end of 2025 ?

Jul 18, 8:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.19%chance

152832

OptionVotes

YES

1230

813

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be candidate to the french presidential election in 2027

Feb 8, 12:15 AMJul 1, 9:59 PM

59.22%chance

282284

OptionVotes

YES

1396

504

Will a non specialized AI assistant master French grammar rule of "L'accord du participe passé" at the end of 2025 ?

Dec 10, 9:33 AMDec 31, 10:00 PM

63.34%chance

291498

OptionVotes

YES

1059

922

Will the French believe Intelligence Artificielle (IA) to be an existential risk, by 2030?

Sep 2, 6:37 AMJan 1, 7:28 AM

59.57%chance

271309

OptionVotes

YES

995

942

Will "Introduction to French AI Policy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 11, 10:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.44%chance

31100

OptionVotes

YES

2095

887

Will Lebanon return to a French Mandate before 2030?

Nov 8, 5:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.81%chance

17893

OptionVotes

YES

1680

904

Will there be a french Sixth republic by 2040?

Aug 17, 4:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.88%chance

23689

OptionVotes

YES

1038

868

Will Françoise Bettencourt Meyers (French businesswoman) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

May 13, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.44%chance

4162

OptionVotes

YES

248

2027 French Presidential Election second round: Attal vs Bardella?

Apr 1, 1:31 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

32.16%chance

475

OptionVotes

YES

145

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