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Prediction markets for Hamas

When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)

May 3, 10:57 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

95129484

OptionProbability

Jan - Jun 2026

Other

Jul - Dec 2026

Jan - Jun 2025

Jul - Dec 2025

Jan - Jun 2024

Jul - Dec 2024

Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side

Oct 8, 6:14 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

31274146

OptionProbability

1500-2500

2500-3500

5000+

1000-1500

3500-5000

0-500

500-1000

Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?

Nov 4, 9:58 AMJan 7, 12:59 PM

31.45%chance

27742647

OptionVotes

YES

1343

792

Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?

Oct 29, 4:32 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

17.48%chance

20439375

OptionVotes

YES

2229

365

Was Hamas using Al-Shifa as a shield for a command centre?

Oct 30, 5:06 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

86.06%chance

15038818

OptionVotes

YES

2827

800

Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war

Mar 31, 11:32 AMJun 1, 5:59 AM

39%chance

6226670

OptionVotes

YES

1128

658

Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034)

Jan 15, 2:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31.99%chance

6726012

OptionVotes

YES

1142

924

Will Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?

Jan 29, 10:42 AMDec 29, 12:59 AM

16.7%chance

5310470

OptionVotes

YES

2044

619

Will Hamas “disarm and relinquish power” in Gaza?

Jul 31, 11:00 AMJul 31, 11:00 AM

17.79%chance

477744

OptionVotes

YES

2150

465

Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?

Jan 3, 3:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.03%chance

171704

OptionVotes

YES

2289

437

Will the current Israel-Hamas conflict last ten years, as some senior Israeli officials warned during Biden's trip?

Oct 20, 3:51 PMOct 21, 6:59 AM

12.7%chance

21858

OptionVotes

YES

1063

967

[unlinked free response] How can Israel stop Hamas from controlling Gaza before 2030?

Oct 13, 10:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6130

OptionProbability

Long-term total occupation of Gaza by ground troops; overseeing new elections; enforcement of a ban on Hamas membership/speech/symbols/publications ala the denazification of Germany.

Any policy

Any policy not involving extensive ground troop occupation of Gaza

Long-term refusal to supply food/water/energy

Latest stories

Aug 29, 2025
Aug 29, 2025
Middle East
Italy
War
Italy’s Meloni Condemns Gaza Strike That Killed Journalists, Citing Disproportionate Force
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6
5 months ago
Aug 29, 2025
Aug 29, 2025
Breaking
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5 months ago
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5 months ago
Aug 28, 2025
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5
5 months ago
Aug 28, 2025
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5
5 months ago
Aug 28, 2025
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3
5 months ago
Aug 28, 2025
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Lebanon
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5 months ago
Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Middle East
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5 months ago
Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Middle East
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5 months ago
Aug 27, 2025
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Middle East
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5 months ago
Aug 27, 2025
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Middle East
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5
5 months ago
Aug 27, 2025
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Middle East
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5 months ago
Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Middle East
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Politics
Global Somoud Flotilla Plans 1,000 Boats to Break Israeli Siege as Truck Drivers Face Attacks and Hamas Charities Reclaim Food in Gaza
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3
5 months ago
Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
Middle East
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13
5 months ago
Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
Middle East
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US Foreign Policy
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4
5 months ago
Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
Middle East
Brazil
War
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4
5 months ago
Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
Middle East
War
Politics
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9
5 months ago
Aug 25, 2025
Aug 25, 2025
Middle East
Britain
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5
5 months ago
Aug 24, 2025
Aug 24, 2025
Middle East
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7
5 months ago
Aug 24, 2025
Aug 24, 2025
Middle East
War
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4
5 months ago
Aug 23, 2025
Aug 23, 2025
Israel
War
Politics
Israeli Protesters Target National Security Minister Ben-Gvir Over Hostage Deal, Prisoner Exchange with Hamas
Authors
6
6 months ago
Aug 23, 2025
Aug 23, 2025
Middle East
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Authors
4
6 months ago
Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Middle East
War
US Foreign Policy
Trump Says Israel ‘Safer’ With Swift Gaza Offensive, Cites Hostage Role
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6
6 months ago
Aug 22, 2025
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Middle East
War
Politics
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29
6 months ago
Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Middle East
War
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11
6 months ago
Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Middle East
War
Politics
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11
6 months ago
Aug 21, 2025
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Middle East
War
Politics
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8
6 months ago
Aug 21, 2025
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Middle East
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6
6 months ago
Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
Middle East
War
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10
6 months ago
Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
Middle East
France
War
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11
6 months ago
Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
Middle East
War
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23
6 months ago
Aug 20, 2025
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Culture
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21
6 months ago
Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
Middle East
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4
6 months ago
Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
Middle East
War
Politics
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22
6 months ago
Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
Middle East
War
US Foreign Policy
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13
6 months ago
Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
Europe
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6 months ago
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Middle East
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6 months ago
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War
Politics
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6 months ago
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Middle East
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6 months ago
Aug 18, 2025
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13
6 months ago
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Middle East
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6 months ago
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6 months ago
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Middle East
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16
6 months ago
Aug 17, 2025
Aug 17, 2025
Middle East
US Foreign Policy
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61
6 months ago
Aug 17, 2025
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Canada
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5
6 months ago
Aug 17, 2025
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Canada
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6 months ago
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Middle East
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6 months ago
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Britain
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6 months ago
Aug 17, 2025
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Middle East
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3
6 months ago
Aug 16, 2025
Aug 16, 2025
Middle East
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6 months ago
Aug 15, 2025
Aug 15, 2025
Middle East
Politics
World
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4
6 months ago
Aug 15, 2025
Aug 15, 2025
Middle East
Russia
War
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10
6 months ago
Aug 15, 2025
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Politics
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29
6 months ago
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6 months ago
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Aug 13, 2025
Middle East
War
Politics
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Authors
15
6 months ago
Aug 12, 2025
Aug 12, 2025
Middle East
War
Politics
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36
6 months ago
Aug 11, 2025
Aug 11, 2025
Middle East
War
Politics
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15
6 months ago

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