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Prediction markets for Russian

Is a NATO-aligned or anti-Russian entity responsible for the Nord Stream attack?

Oct 1, 6:02 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

96.55%chance

15747127

OptionVotes

YES

13262

816

Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)

Jun 6, 8:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64.9%chance

12137711

OptionVotes

YES

2242

1989

Russian 2025 Rhodium supply estimate to exceed 60 koz?

Aug 13, 11:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.5%chance

1011525

OptionVotes

YES

13189

7582

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

46.78%chance

589636

OptionVotes

YES

1067

938

US import restrictions on Russian Palladium by January 1, 2026?

Nov 24, 8:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.26%chance

115341

OptionVotes

YES

13705

7296

Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?

Jan 16, 1:30 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

23.32%chance

383217

OptionVotes

YES

1115

970

will I speak conversational Russian by the time I graduate Minerva University in 2028

May 24, 6:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.1%chance

7633

OptionVotes

YES

1022

978

Briahna Joy Grey took russian state-sponsored money. Strong Evidence presented before 2027.

Sep 14, 8:22 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

37.77%chance

9424

OptionVotes

YES

1284

779

Will a Russian university make the top 50 before 2035?

Jan 15, 8:37 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

38.08%chance

5325

OptionVotes

YES

1275

784

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

1025

976

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

YES

1059

1041

Russian translation of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" appears when?

Oct 4, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:24 PM

OptionProbability

Before 2025-12-31

2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30

2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31

2027-01-01 to 2027-06-30

2027-07-01 to 2027-12-31

No translation is published before 2028

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