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Prediction markets for White House

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be mentioned or quoted in the White House briefing room within 5 years?

May 23, 1:11 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

54.78%chance

221114189

OptionVotes

YES

1101

909

Will Vivek Ramaswamy Hold an Official Position in Trump’s White House?

Dec 27, 8:23 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.72%chance

17742411

OptionVotes

YES

7301

1020

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

87.47%chance

387402

OptionVotes

YES

2643

378

Will the White House Ballroom really be a ballroom?

Oct 26, 6:21 PMJan 20, 5:47 PM

535682

OptionProbability

No, less than half ballroom etc.

Yes, more than half ballroom etc

Regardless of elections, will actual control of the White House switch parties in January 2029?

Jul 20, 8:28 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

54.42%chance

171802

OptionVotes

YES

10297

9614

NY Times runs an article or editorial suggesting renaming The White House

Jan 9, 4:20 AMMay 16, 6:59 AM

12.24%chance

311788

OptionVotes

YES

1876

801

Will Congress pass legislation explicitly authorizing or funding the White House Ballroom project by Jan 3, 2027?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM

13.77%chance

121674

OptionVotes

YES

2503

400

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari to hear the White House Ballroom case by the end of their 2026-2027 term?

Mar 31, 9:12 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

39.95%chance

12848

OptionVotes

YES

1226

816

Will JK Rowling visit the White House again before 2028?

Apr 5, 3:31 PMJan 6, 6:59 AM

16.65%chance

19676

OptionVotes

YES

1412

886

Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027

Feb 9, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.79%chance

12669

OptionVotes

YES

1432

698

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029

May 14, 7:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.3%chance

13619

OptionVotes

YES

1448

691

Will any additional major section of the White House be demolished in 2026?

Oct 24, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.14%chance

13614

OptionVotes

YES

206

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